Vol 13, No 6 (2020)
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RESEARCH ARTICLES. Military and non-military tools in world politics
7-52 955
Abstract
The article examines the impact of technological changes on the risks of military clashes between states. Currently, experts express increasing concerns about the destabilizing effect of new weapons (including anti-missile and anti-satellite weapons, hypersonic missiles, autonomous lethal systems, and artificial intelligence). These assessments are rarely based on solid theoretical foundations. The author seeks to fill this gap, arguing that the emergence of new weapons has a negative impact on international stability, and this effect is weakly related to the specific characteristics of underline technologies. The theory of technological uncertainty offers an alternative to the offense-defense balance theory. The latter developed since the 1970s, but its validity is questionable. The theory of technological uncertainty attributes the destabilizing effect of weapons to the divergence of states' perceptions of the balance of powers, to the hyped expectations regarding the ability to compensate quantitative limitations with qualitative superiority, to the alarmistic sense of closing windows of opportunities and growing vulnerabilities. The article tests the theory against the historical record of military clashes in Europe from the end of the 18th to the middle of the 20th centuries, as well as the crises between superpowers during the Cold War. The empirical cases are selected in order to cover the period marked by the intensification of qualitative arms races between states. In addition, it is also the period most often used to substantiate the offense-defense balance theory. The history of the last two and a half centuries provides a solid foundation for the theory of technological uncertainty. All instances of large-scale military clashes were preceded by significant technological changes, while peace fell on periods of technological stagnation. The author addresses the policy implications of the theory for the discussions on emerging weapons in the 2010s and 2020s. The study confirms that concerns regarding their destabilizing effect are justified, but for the different reasons from those put forward by most analysts. A somewhat optimistic caveat to its conclusions is the fact that currently emerging weapons are at various stages of development. The greatest likelihood of military clashes corresponds to the overlap of several technological uncertainties. Therefore, an increase in the time lag between introduction of various arms can mitigate destabilizing effect.
53-76 1061
Abstract
The article examines the actions of the US diplomacy aimed at strengthening the US military and political presence in the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean in the first half of the 1950s. The United States began creating mechanisms for mobilizing its allies to contain possible Soviet aggression in the event of a new local conflict on the Balkan Peninsula. This policy led to the need to develop plans for internationalization of alleged conflict. The author uses materials from the US National Archives, the State Archive of the Russian Federation, the electronic archives of the Central Intelligence Agency, North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the US National Security Council, as well as published sources. Special attention is paid to the position of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff on military strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean. The outbreak of the Korean War became an important milestone in American politics not only for the Far East, but also for other regions of the world. In the Balkans, the Americans were mostly afraid of the aggression of Soviet “satellites” against Greece and Yugoslavia. In response, in the early 1950s the United States formed a new security model in the Balkans, which based on a differentiated approach: Greece became a member of NATO, while Yugoslavia entered the anti-Soviet Balkan Pact affiliated with NATO. Yugoslavia became a bridge between the NATO countries – Italy and Greece. Documents held in the US National Archives show that American military leaders spoke out in favor of Yugoslavia’s membership in NATO and insisted on coordinating the military plans of Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey. The author concludes that the rapprochement of Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey was situational. The improvement of the situation in the Balkans after the death of Joseph Stalin led to the collapse of the Balkan Pact. The analysis of American policy in the Balkans made it possible to contribute to the study of the means and methods used by the United States to internationalize military conflicts in various regions of the world in the mid-twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.
77-98 1041
Abstract
The development of the US foreign policy tools in the 20th century resulted in sanctions becoming one of the most convenient means for achieving administration’s goals on the international arena, as well as a useful tool in domestic politics. Institutionally established within the scope of the executive branch, buttressed by the US dominance in the world economy and viewed as a “humane” way of influencing foreign elites, it does not demand significant political capital and, as a result, can be implemented without deep strategic thinking. Current US policy towards Russia is constrained by the framework of the sanctions regime, created by Barak Obama Administration in 2014. This regime is inherently inert and is likely to determine the scope and methods of the US policy towards Russia for the foreseeable future regardless of the priorities of the country’s leadership. This article seeks to study the creation of the regime and explain the logic of decision-making process regarding this issue. Utilizing the approach of Francesco Giumelli, who developed a system of factors to explain the logic of a sanctions policy, the author shows that the US sanction policy towards Russia was framed by the desire to demonstrate the ability to mobilize international community and reaffirm its commitments to the security of the Eastern Europe. Low profile of the Ukraine issue on the US foreign policy agenda as well as low political cost of the escalation towards Russia resulted in sanctions becoming a substitute for a foreign policy strategy and were not accompanied by the analysis of the situation, determination of goals and the parameters for evaluating the success of the policy. The deficiency of such an approach is accentuated by the comparison with the European Union who paid a higher price for its sanctions and, despite a popular in Russia notion of a unified “West”, not only resisted the will of the US, but acted as a deterrent for its actions.
RESEARCH ARTICLES. Subnational actors in world politics
99-132 1273
Abstract
The European Union undergoes several qualitative transformations. Today it faces major demographic changes, the distance between the EU and national states is growing because of Brexit and high rates of immigration to Europe. The configuration of mainstream parties is also transforming in an unpredictable way. All these processes bring the phenomenon of right-wing populism to the forefront of political life of the European Union. This phenomenon was an answer both to internal andexternal challenges. The aim of the article is to identify the components of right-wing populism using the examples of some memberstates, to show its threats and risks, as well as ways to minimize the impact of this phenomenon on all aspects of the EU life. To achieve this goal, party programs (primarily right-wing populist ones), national and European elections data, materials from the Eurobarometer and other public opinion services, speeches and interviews of leading politicians, and other materials are used. The methodological approach is based on the principles of interdisciplinarity. The authors used comparative-typological, functional and structural methods. The problems of immigration and Islamophobia in the EU are explained with the help of the civilizational concept of A.J. Toynbee. The structure of the article provides the study of the phenomenon of right-wing populism through such indicators as separation of elites from the population (including European democracy and lack of democracy), immigration (and Islamophobia), as well as the EU identity. The article provides a detailed analysis of the member- state cases including the United Kingdom, Austria, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, the countries of Eastern Europe and others. The authors conclude that right-wing populism has dual nature, its significance in individual countries of the European Union increases, and it is deeply integrated into the party and parliamentary mechanism of European democracies.
133-152 3099
Abstract
The article deals with the problems of small and medium entrepreneurship (SME) in Germany, its role in the country’s economy. It reveals the mechanism of interaction of government structures, political parties, business alliances and the expert community in formulating and carrying out policies aimed at supporting SME. It shows that real business conditions in Germany differ substantially from what is usually offered to potential investors in advertising brochures. The Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity Index (TEA-Quote) puts Germany far behind its competitors. For several consecutive years the number of liquidated small and medium enterprises has been higher than that of newly created ones. Germany’s new generation prefers to seek jobs in big companies or in the civil service. Germany seems to have lost the Gründer spirit. Entrepreneurs complain about the great number of bureaucratic procedures, the growing shortage of skilled workforce, high electricity prices, and difficulties in accessing bank credits for micro and small enterprises. An underdeveloped market of venture capital has been a drag on innovative startups. A successful cluster policy, which gave a new impulse to the development of several territories, has not offset serious shortcomings in the country’s entrepreneurial climate. While not dramatizing the situation, the author considers as mistaken a common point of view found in Russian publications. This point of view holds that framework conditions for business in Germany constitute a near-ideal model, which leads to success as long as it is copied faithfully. The article analyses public discussion in Germany about the problems of SMEs, complains of small and medium business against the authorities. The key provisions of the government strategy to develop small and medium business adopted in 2019 and a cessionary package to mitigate damage of the coronavirus outbreak on the German economy adopted in 2020 are reviewed. The main conclusion of the author is that the German experience should be treated selectively, taking into account overall internal political, economic and social conditions under which the German policy of supporting SMEs is designed. The strengths of this policy lie in its systemic nature and a commitment to align it with industrial, innovative, social, research, and educational policies.
153-174 848
Abstract
The international activities of governments at the subnational level have become widespread practice. Cooperation between local authorities, which began in Europe with the aim of promoting peace, international understanding, and reconciliation between peoples in the post-war period, has spread throughout the world over time. International cityto- city partnerships, also known as sister cities, have become an instrument for promoting economic development. The movement of sister cities is considered not only as a form of cross-border intermunicipal cooperation, but also as one of the aspects of paradiplomacy. One of the consequences of regionalization that swept post-Soviet Russia in the 1990s was the growth of foreign economic activity, international contacts of both Russian regions and cities. This is reflected in the signing of intermunicipal agreements. This research is aimed at determining the factors on which the international activity of Russian cities depends. The theoretical and methodological basis of the work was the concept of paradiplomacy in general and city diplomacy in particular. The author put forward several hypotheses in the framework of the approaches to high international activity of cities existing in the scientific literature. The database was a list of sister cities, including 150 Russian municipalities compiled by the International Association of Related Cities. Statistical calculations were performed by multiple linear regression. As a result of the study, it was found that a large number of sister cities are observed in Russian cities, which can be attributed to megacities and large cities. It was revealed that a high level of international activity of Russian cities is characteristic of municipalities located in border regions. It is shown that economic characteristics directly affect the number of contracts. The author came to the conclusion that the status of the administrative center of Russian regions positively affects on the number of sister cities. The article emphasizes the influence of the historical heritage of territories on the development of inter-municipal cultural cooperation. In conclusion, it is noted that the influence of demographic, geographical, economic, political, legal, and cultural-historical features of municipalities on the number of sister cities does not explain all cases. The author believes that the political factor has a certain explanatory power.
RESEARCH ARTICLES. Pivot to the East
175-207 728
Abstract
The emerging trend in Russia’s foreign policy is its reorientation from active interstate and socio-economic interaction with the states of the "collective West" to the countries that make up the Asian macroregion. The article presents the qualitative and quantitative assessment of the emerging relations between Russia and the countries of the East, namely the ASEAN countries, Northeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. Assuming that the prerequisites for the strengthening of such relationships between countries should be reflected in changes in trade relations, increased migration flows, and changes in policy in terms of countries' military spending, the study attempts to evaluate such changes econometrically. We use the method of constructing multiple linear regression, as well as indicators for assessing country-by-country correlation and cluster analysis. The object of the research is the countries of Northeast Asia (China, Japan, Republic of Korea); ASEAN countries (Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore); India; Australia and Oceania. The empirical base of the study is the official statistics of World Bank, SIPRI, FSGS. The findings indicate the emerging conditions for Russia's turn to the East. The analysis reveals a number of stable features indicating the possibility of modeling a reasonable predictive scenario. The proposed estimates can also be used for further study of the directions of interaction between Russia and the East, methodological and empirical clarification of the emerging relationships, determination of significant factors strengthening the noted interactions.
208-227 886
Abstract
The article looks into the Russia-India energy trade potential and its strategic significance with a particular focus on the Central Asian energy trade. Russia has become a major player in the energy market and its handling of Syrian crisis has enhanced its position in the Middle East that has impact on oil market and production scenario. India has been a growing at a rate of above 5% and its energy needs have been substantial. India and Russia share a very special relationship due to long-standing cultural and political ties and this has been a facilitator to India’s energy security needs. The Central Asian Republics hold a special position for Russia and India in terms of strategic security across South and Central Asian region. The two countries not only deeply connect themselves with the region but also find it necessary to preserve the region from religious extremism and terrorism that is worsened by the narcotics and arms trade. The Central Asian republics are a house to some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves and they have been exporting it large volumes through pipelines. However, the approach has not materialised as South Asia due to the Afghanistan situation. Therefore, Russia remains an important route to access energy resources from Eurasia and Central Asia in particular. India also has high exposure to the maritime energy trade with Africa and Latin America countries that contribute to the counting opportunity cost for accessing Central Asian energy. The paper highlights the significance of energy trade between Russia, India and Central Asian countries that could contribute to geopolitical stability across the region.
BOOK REVIEWS
228-234 705
Abstract
Review of the second edition of the book by Lars Schernikau. Economics of the International Coal Trade: Why Coal Continues to Power the World. Springer, 2016. 497 p.
ISSN 2071-8160 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)