No 2(47) (2016)
View or download the full issue
PDF (Russian)
TURKEY IN WORLD POLITICS AND ECONOMY
7-14 1801
Abstract
The Republic of Turkey in the year of 2015 has gone through the period of critical transformation of its foreign and domestic policies. The main reason for this transformation is the inability of the Justice and Development Party to reach its goals to draft the new constitution and vest the president of the country with new powers. Nevertheless, the authors believe that there are also historic and demographic reasons for this transformation that have been developing for several decades. The basis of this transformation is the destructive foreign policy course pursued by the ruling elites aimed at fomenting crises inside and outside Turkey. The most tangible signs of that are the resumption of hostilities between the Turkish army and PKK and also regular shillings of the positions of Syrian Kurds by Turkish artillery. According to the authorities of Turkey such policy is likely to force the Turkish society and foreign partners to make concessions and give the Justice and Development Party the right to reform the country in its own way. However, such policy also increases the possibility that some internal and external actors will try to make everything possible to overthrow the ruling regime one way or another.
15-21 1188
Abstract
The article examines the causes of the permanent political instability in the Turkish Republic, which leads to frequent change of governments, degradation of political parties and changing of policies. On the example of the activities of different cabinets it is showen that the basis of their instability is the frequent creation of coalition governments consisting of parties that stand on different ideological positions. Inter-party antagonism, in its turn, is a consequence of the split of the Turkish society along civilizational, ethnic and religious grounds, which determines the different political orientation of the various layers of the Turkish society. At the same time the article shows the examples of the undoubted efficiency of one-party governments, however they never get support from the opposition parties, and eventually also fail to effectively and consistently implement their proposed policies. The author also deals with a policy of the ruling today in Turkey, the Islamist Party of Justice and Development, which after several years of successful political and economic reforms to date entered the period of deep crisis and is increasingly losing its authority and influence both in Turkey and in neighboring countries.
22-31 1147
Abstract
A famous Islamic philosopher Fethullah Gulen backed up the nowadays president Erdogan in the beginning of creation of his Justice & Development Party (AKP). Gulen though backed up Erdogan criticized some of his actions. He was against the "Freedom Flotilla" that was sent be Erdogan to raise the blockade of Gaza sector. He visited the Roma Pope while defending the idea of the "Dialog of civilizations" and was sharply criticized for this visit by the Islamists. In 2013 he criticized Erdogan for the police attacks against mass demonstrations of protest in Istanbul. Besides he sharply criticized corruption of the AKP officials. Erdogan was irritated by this criticism. In spite of many common ideas of contemporary «moderated Moslems» - the supporters of Erdogan and followers of Gulen severe inter-political struggle among them lead to massive attacks against gulenist's "Hizmet" Movement and Nurcilar (Nur movement - the followers of anti-secular cleric Said Nursi). In respond "Hizmet" started a broad campaign against corruption and nepotism among the Erdogan's supporters. The latter charged gulenists in conspiracy activities against the ruling party and "betrayal of Turkey". They closed gulenist's educational schools and started the cleansing campaign against "Hizmet" in the state structures. This struggle may influence on the ideologic basement and the future of Turkey.
32-39 3739
Abstract
The article is devoted to the ideology of Turkey's foreign policy. The term "neo-Ottomanism" is increasingly used in recent years in relation to the Turkish foreign policy. The concept of neo-Ottomanism, which ideology is the Prime Minister Davutoglu, implies a relationship of foreign policy of modern Turkey with the historical heritage of the Ottomans and its focus on return "last Ottoman", taking into account today's realities. The author examines this phenomenon in the context of the regional policy of Turkey in this period. The main directions of the strategy of neo are the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Crimea, and the Balkans. Particular attention is paid to manifestations of neo-Ottomanism in the post-Soviet region and the Middle East, as well as "soft power" strategy in the Turkish neo-Ottomanism. Activities of Ankara in the regions belonging to the sphere of its geopolitical interests is carried out on political, economic, religious, cultural and educational levels. Rapprochement with the political and business circles of influence of countries in the region is aimed at the formation of pro-Turkish lobby. "Arab Spring" has given Turkey a historic opportunity to realize its neo-Ottoman ambitions and create a new order in the Middle East. Turkey's rapprochement with the Islamic world during the 'Arab Spring' demonstrated that Ankara supported in conjunction with the Western nations protest and opposition movements in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, aims to demonstrate to the West the growth of its influence in the region. Mediation is used in regional conflicts Turkish leadership as an instrument of "soft power", with which Ankara aims to increase its international and regional credibility. The result of "neo-Ottoman" Turkey's policy in relations with Russia became a serious crisis in all spheres of cooperation. Strategic mistakes made by the head of the republic R. Erdogan in the settlement of the Syrian crisis, may lead to instability of the entire region. The author considers the possible directions of neo-Ottoman Turkey's policy in the studied regions in the near future.
40-48 1073
Abstract
Turkey considers Tatarstan a sphere of its geopolitical interests in the framework of pan-Turkism concepts. With the collapse of the USSR Ankara began to pursue an active policy in the Volga region, strengthening its influence there. One of the Turkish policies towards Tatarstan became religious expansion. Islamic Jamaat of Turkey sent its missionaries to Tatarstan. This led to the fact that some Muslims of Tatarstan began to focus on Turkey and the spiritually obey Turkish sheikhs. Authorities in Tatarstan treated religious intervention of Turkey in the region favorably. The ideological rapprochement with Turkey was a part of the foreign policy strategy of Tatarstan elite that after gaining independence in the early 1990s saw in Ankara a natural ally. Turkey acted as a "big brother" for Tatarstan. The religious sphere of cooperation was seen as one of the factors bringing the two Turkic republics togather. A huge variety of Turkish islamic jamaats in Tatarstan is due to the fact that Ankara has actively supported the religious expansion in those regions that are a zone of its interests. And often those religious groups that were in opposition to the Turkish authorities inside Turkey, are supported by Ankara outside the country in their missionary work.
49-52 1581
Abstract
The article examines the strategic analysis of the reasons and outcomes of the aggravation of the relations between Russia and Turkey after the catastrophe with the Russian military plane Su-24. The author outlines the most critical problems which have led to this tragic event using the philosophical approach. The article analyses the relations between the two countries from the strategic point of view on the assumption of the necessity to build up fruitful cooperation in the future. According to the author, purely economic factors because of which bilateral relations could be defined as strategic partnership, have proven to be insufficient when it has come to the political rapprochement of Russia and Turkey based on the commonly understood values of the regional cooperation amid the formation of the multipolar world. The author claims that Russia and Turkey could together become one of the poles using their regional cooperation in the regions of the Black sea and the Middle-East. Nevertheless, extra idealization of the two countries' rapprochement, taking into account the events of the 24th November, 2015, has caused political disenchantment with the perspective of taking the bilateral relations to the real level of strategic partnership which would include not only economic but other factors as well. The tragic event is not only about our plane being shut down but also about the murder of our soldiers what, also considering the reluctance of the Turkish elite to make apologies and its aspiration to postpone the normalization of the relations, makes it difficult to at least bring the relations back to their initial level.
53-61 2520
Abstract
Security cooperation has always been an important aspect of the relations between Turkey and the USA. In Cold War era Turkish-American interaction within NATO played a crucial role in this cooperation. After that period the two countries began to search for a new model of their relations. Both Turkey and the USA started to use cooperation within NATO for the purpose of strengthening their global positions. At the same time the USA aspiration to use military bases in Turkey beyond NATO obligations frequently becomes a source of disagreement and crises in the relations of the two countries as it happened during the American intervention to Iraq in 2003. At present new challenges for regional security, especially in the Middle East, demands new forms of interaction between Turkey and the USA. The beginning of "the Arab spring" was met in Ankara and Washington with overlapping interest in changing conservative regimes and promoting "Turkish model". At the same time such questions as participation of Turkey in the fight against ISIL and the USA military cooperation with the Syrian Kurds, whom Ankara considers to be connected with the PKK terrorist organization, has brought serious contradictions between the two countries. The cause of these contradiction is the difference in the perception of threats in Turkey and in the Western countries. While the search for new forms of security cooperation meets with difficulties, NATO remains important for the relations between Turkey and the USA, despite traditionally high level of anti-NATO moods in the Turkish society.
62-71 2083
Abstract
The paper examines the impact of the migration crisis in the EU on the European Union's relations with Turkey. It is shown that for a number of reasons, including a result of EU actions taken from 2011 to 2015, EU has experienced an influx of migrants on a number of routes from the Western to the Eastern Mediterranean. The largest of them fell on Turkey, which has tried to use this factor to exert pressure on the EU in order to obtain economic and political preferences. The author examines the development of the EU migration policy in the context of the crisis, its trying to bring Turkey to cooperate and difficult negotiations, which took place at the summits of the EU-Turkey at the end of 2015. There have been disagreements among the EU countries, and the time factor, which Turkey took advantage of, advancing conditions for the closure of borders to Europe for migrants. Facing the influx of migrants the EU had to agree with a number of conditions, though not with all. The author shows that the agreement reached by the country in March 2016 is not universal, and a number of issues important to the resolution of the crisis, are waiting to be decided upon. However, according to the author, the development of the current crisis can lead both to the reform of the migration and border policy within the EU, and to restarting relations with Turkey. Though guessing on possibilities on Turkey's entry to the EU in the near future is still premature.
72-79 1442
Abstract
South Caucasus throughout history was at the epicenter of clashes of different religions, civilizations, nations and states. At present moment the interests of both regional (Turkey, Iran) and global actors (the United States, NATO, the EU, Russia and others.) intersect in the region. Global transformations, changing power relations in international relations have their direct influence on the political processes taking place in the region. These processes are also linked with the activities of Turkey, which aspire to regional leadership. It is Georgia, which serves as a corridor between Turkey and states of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Turkey spreads its influence in Georgia in almost all areas using economic, military and political tools, as well as the Russian-Georgian deteriorated relations. To achieve its goals, Turkey is actively pursuing a strategy of "soft power", which further strengthens its influence in the country. Public diplomacy is a part of soft power, which also ensures the formation of a positive and attractive image of Turkey in Georgia. This article investigates the contemporary policy of "soft power" of Turkey towards Georgia. It analyses the basic tools, institutions and the direction of this policy, actively implemented by the Republic of Turkey. Particular attention is paid to the activities of the Gulen Movement in Georgia. The author makes general conclusions regarding the effectiveness of this policy.
80-90 887
Abstract
Providing assistance to the least developed countries has remained one of the top priorities for leading international actors in the XXI century, and the Republic of Turkey is no exception in this regard. The Justice and Development Party's ascension to power in 2002 led to a drastic revision of the Turkish foreign policy and adoption of a novel approach to the least developed countries accounting for the complex interdependence between security and development. This approach was tested in Afghanistan where Turkey contributed to both post-conflict reconstruction of the country and to the activities of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Since 2015 Turkey has been actively engaged in the new NATO 'Resolute Support' mission, while continuing its economic support to Afghanistan on bilateral and multilateral basis. This paper aims to unveil the particularities of the Turkey's Afghan strategy, which has yet escaped the Russian scholars' attention, with the help of the Turkish primary sources and academic works. It studies the specificity of bilateral relations and their determinants, including historic ties and religious and cultural proximity. It provides an in-depth analysis of the activities of both Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency (TIKA) and the Turkish Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan and examines the challenges of Turkish troops' presence on the Afghan soil and the way how the Turkish elites and Turkey's NATO allies perceive it.
91-100 1164
Abstract
The article discusses some aspects of the relationship of the European Union and Turkey. Against the backdrop of the immigration crisis, that has gripped almost all countries in Europe, the EU states were forced to appeal to the Turkish Government for assistance. Europe requested to withhold part of the f refugees on the territory of Turkey. The EU promised financial support. The Government of RecepTayyip Erdogan linked problems with the issue of refugees entering the country in the EU. The author analyzes the possibility of positive promotion of the negotiation process on Turkey's EU membership. Focuses on the settlement of the Cyprus problem, as one of the three major political obstacles to Turkey in Europe. We are seeing a situation in which EU political circles are willing to exert pressure on the Cyprus conflict and to push for the signing of a formal treaty on the settlement of problem. Some progress in the negotiation process between the communities of Cyprus EU starts to participate in the negotiations on Cyprus, together with the United Nations. Creates good conditions for the settlement of the conflict. Such a way of resolving the long-standing territorial-community conflict creates much more new problems on the island. Obstacles to the integration of Turkey into the EU will become even more.
101-110 1547
Abstract
The article deals with current issues of energy diplomacy of Turkey. The authors describe the main positive and negative results of Turkey's foreign energy policy in terms of the implementation of major energy projects. Geopolitical processes in the world, the conflict of interests of various countries in the political arena are important factors that affect the crude oil and natural gas pipeline projects. Particular attention is paid to the problems and prospects of cooperation between the Turkish Republic and the Russian Federation in the fuel and energy complex. The authors describe the interaction betweeen Russia and Turkey in the energy sector, including geo-economic interests of the countries in the Russian-Turkish gas dialogue. Turkey made efforts to position as an alternative gas supply route, taking advantage of concern about increasing Europe's dependence on Russian exports. Last years Turkey has set itself the important task - to turn from transit country into a regional gas hub. Ukrainian crisis increased the geostrategic importance of the Black Sea region to Russia, as well as strengthened the ambition of the Turkish side. The authors also highlight the prospects of the natural gas pipeline project from Russia via the Black Sea to Turkey and to the Turkish-Greek border, which named "Turkish stream". This project was frozen in terms of military and political processes at the end of 2015 in Syria.
111-117 1795
Abstract
Turkey now is a regional leader due to economic success story of the past decade, changes in the economy's structure and dynamic. Since 1980th foreign trade has become the main driver of the economic growth. Due to liberalization policy Turkey was able to overcome the system crisis. The negative economic trends had contributed to the political instability. That's why it will be interesting to highlight some aspects of Turkish foreign trade policy, which influence the value, geographical and product orientation of foreign trade. Negative balance of trade is the result of its oil import dependence. But the export of goods with more value added has the trend to growth - 30% of exports come to machineries and transport equipments. After the collapse of the USSR Turkish-Russian economic relationship was facing revival. Trade and investment cooperation was developing rapidly. But the conflict of interest during the war in Syria led to growing differences between Russia and Turkey. 24th of November 2015 became a turning point for the Russian-Turkish relations, when Turkish fighter jet F-16 shot down a Russian military jet along the Syrian border. This tragedy had serious consequences for the bilateral economic relations. Huge investment pipeline project "Turkish stream" is freezed, the work of intergovernmental authorities is stopped, certain agricultural goods originated from Turkey is banned to the territory of the Russian Federation. Russia also suspended the visa-free regime for Turkish citizens, all charter flights to Turkey are prohibited. Nevertheless economic sanctions inevitable affect both the Turkish and Russian economies, but Russia is still one of the main partners of Turkey.
WORLD POLITICS
118-124 853
Abstract
The article considers the consequences of the realization of NATO strategy in the conflicts of "the Arab spring" for the states of the Middle East and North Africa. It is pointed out that the main approaches to the realization of NATO strategy, its results and the consequences of the Alliance crisis management of "the Arab spring" have a contradictory character. On the one hand, the strategic problem of the block has been realized: arrangement of conflicts and an attempt to appear in the opinion of the world community as the only peacekeeping force capable of controlling and resolving regional conflicts. At the same time the Alliance has shown the efficiency of its partner programs. The high quality performance of the military forces of NATO has been confirmed. The North Atlantic Alliance has started moves towards strengthening its own positions in the region under the auspices of assistance in democratization of Arab states by supporting protest performances. On the other hand, the members of the Alliance have very specifically approached the realization of tasks of settlement of the conflicts. As a result, in the majority of the countries of the Arab world the conflicts not only have not been settled but, on the contrary, in a number of cases have intensified. One of the main consequences of the realization of NATO of its approaches to settlement of the events of "the Arab spring" was the export of "instability" which entailed radical changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East region. The geopolitical configuration of all the Middle Eastern area has changed. Some diffusion of the territorial activity of certain states (Iraq, Libya, Syria) is observed. In the course of the Arab crisis there appeared new ethnic (Kurdish) and territorial ("The Islamic State") enclaves. More and more countries are found to be involved in the conflict.
125-133 1845
Abstract
The paper proposes to examine the modern political organization of the world as a global system consisting of three levels: Westphalian systems, system of international (interstate) relations, and political systems of states.It shows that all three levels are currently subject to a deep transformation that produces the effect of a 'perfect storm'. The Middle East due to a number of reasons is the most 'weak link', i.e. the link where these processes are manifested with the greatest force. Such situation, when all three levels are in a deep changing, is unique. The world has not previously faced with it. The article discusses possible scenarios for the further development of the system of political organization of the world.
134-144 848
Abstract
Since its establishment the State of Israel has sought alliances with non-Arab and non- Muslim countries and minorities in the Middle East, as well as Arab states geographically distant from the Arab-Israel conflict. The article presents and explains this regional orientation. It examines Israel's strategy of outflanking. The "periphery doctrine" was a grand strategy, meant to attain the major political-security goal of countering Arab hostility through relations with alternative regional powers and potential allies. This periphery strategy had been internalized to some extent in Israel's strategic thinking and it began to reappear after 2010, following a new era of Arab revolution. The rise of political Islam in Egypt, Turkey, Gaza and southern Lebanon coupled with the Islamic regime in Iran, has generated concern in Israel that it is again being surrounded by a ring of hostile states - in this case, Islamists rather than Arab nationalists. The article analyzes Israel's strategic thinking about the Middle East region. It looks at the importance of the "new periphery strategy" for Israeli efforts to advance the Arab-Israel peace process, and its potential role as the Arab Spring brings about greater Islamization of the Arab Middle East. Israeli strategic planners are talking of "spheres of containment" wherein countries like Cyprus, Greece, Azerbaijan, and Ethiopia constitute a kind of new periphery.
145-160 1857
Abstract
Modern international security is a heterogeneous sphere that includes both state and nonstate actors. Legal status of some non-state actors is not always clear. This can be attributed mostly to the dynamics of the global processes. The emergence of new actors, their fast transformation and shift from old forms of activity to the new ones often outpace political and legal assessment of their nature, the impact on some other international trends and the implications of their use that may arise. States and international organizations together with business and non-governmental foundations have started to turn to private security actors more frequently. The fact that traditional methods of state violence are complemented by non-traditional forms influences the idea of violence in the society at large. The efficiency of non-state security actors and the speed they provide services with sometimes exceed the ones of civil servants' and outmaneuver state machine. However these advantages do not contribute to the legitimacy of these non-state actors. As a result during a certain period of time, sometimes a significant one, new actors perform having just a partial legitimacy and a vague accoun tability. Various approaches towards regulation of the abovementioned actors within the framework of national and regional legislation clarify their status in a way. But these measures are not enough for them to obtain legal status under the International Law so far. To address the problem a complex approach that would combine the existing International Law mechanisms with the developing self-regulation methods is needed.
161-167 1221
Abstract
The Federal Republic of Germany and the People's Republic of China are both economic powers in Asia and Europe with a shared international responsibility in many international fields. Germany is China's number-one trade partner in the EU and China is the top foreign investment destination for German companies. This article highlights the relationship between Germany and China since the beginning of Gerhard Schroeder's «Wandel dutch Handel» policy in 1998. Germany's policy toward China was based on the idea that economic exchange and increase in trade between both countries would lead to political and societal change in China. In the author's point of view Germany's China policy shifted significantly to one which focused more heavily on human rights at the beginning of the first term under Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2005. The author argues that Germany's China policy at present time is motivated first of all by economic interests and the needs of its exporters. In recent years, there have been efforts to extend cooperation to other fields like security and world order. The author comes to the conclusion that both Germany and China increasingly consider a strategic partnership within mutual interest.
HISTORY
168-181 1198
Abstract
The most active phase in the work of the Quartet of international intermediaries was connected with the attempts to implement the Road Map plan for the Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement. The significance of the Road Map lies in the fact that it is the plan on the Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement which was, for the first time ever, collectively drafted by the global actors and accepted by both conflicting parties To facilitate the implementation of the Road Map, a peculiar "division of labour" based on historical roles which each member of the Quartet had played in the Middle East settlement, emerged inside the Quartet. The work of the Quartet as a collective intermediary was complemented by individual actions of its members which influenced or were supposed to influence the Road Map implementation. The complex analysis of the examined problem conducted by the author in accordance with his own criteria revealed that all other activities of the international intermediaries were, in one way or another, connected to the Road Map. They were either implemented mainly within the framework of the aforementioned peace plan, or were connected with the efforts to create conditions to get the parties back to implementation of that plan, or were aimed at including alternative programmes into the framework of the Road Map. Quartet's activities to implement the settlement plan couldn't avoid the influence by the United States and a special character of the US-Israeli relations. The US leading role in the work of the Quartet led to a series of events which aggravated the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and became decisive for further development of the conflict which in the end led to the current stalemate. Nevertheless, the very fact of the Quartet creation, which evidenced that even the most influential global actor has no power to solve all aspects of the regional conflict on its own, became a sign of gradual transformation of a unipolar world towards a multipolar one.
182-189 3180
Abstract
This article presented as a review to the textbook of the Doctor of History Shakhalilov Shamansur, The History of International Relations: Driving Forces, Global Tendencies. Moscow State University Press, 2015. The author focuses readers attention on the regularities of formation, development and peculiarities of legal regulation of international relations, considers these relations as an ongoing, highly controversial and multidirectional developing process of the formation of the world system of States and international relations, explores the driving forces, events and phenomena, who had in his time, and many still have a decisive influence on international policy the leading powers of the world in the framework of nonlinear processes of globalization and the current, seriously flawed by today's standards, world order and system of international law. The article draws readers attention to everything presented in the tutorial main substantial characteristics and patterns of international relations in their historical context. Emphasizes the inadmissibility of violations of principles and norms of functioning of the traditional system of international law; analyses the factors of influence on the world trends of globalization processes is the gradual destruction of the boundaries between national and international levels of government and governance, the increasing role of supranational political actors. Attention is drawn to the increasing importance in international Affairs information and communication technologies and social networks, expanding the access of citizens to discuss government decisions on international issues. Article will help not only students, but all interested in the patterns, principles and features of international practices in different historical periods and in different civilization. Will foster in the reader a holistic view of the system of international relations and diplomatic activities, to learn, to understand the origins, motivations and basic principles of foreign policy in different historical and structural conditions, a deeper understanding of the relevant definitions, concepts, norms and traditions of international relations and the professional culture in diplomacy.
190-196 2615
Abstract
This article analyzes the social composition of the political parties of the Russian Empire in the early XX century and a real reflection of interests of different social groups. The estates principle of social organization of pre-revolutionary Russia, seems, was to be decisive to formation of the party organizations. However, in practice, many public organizations (in particular, the Black Hundred Party) declared their all-estates character, trying to become the spokesman of the greatest possible number of social groups. By the beginning of XXcen tury in Russia there were about 60 parties, which could be called the all-Russian. Comparing the most famous of them, the author concludes that representatives of the Black Hundreds largely managed to realize the proclaimed all-estates construction principle of political organization. As stated by the leader of the Monarchist Party V.A.Gringmut, "Black Hundred-monarchists - are thousands, millions, it's - the whole Russian Orthodox people, remaining faithful to the oath unlimited Orthodox tsar" [10, p. 156]. The ideology of the Black Hundreds, which had the universal Christian character, reflecting the traditionalist outlook of the country's population, contributed to their penetration into the masses. Contrary to popular belief, the big bourgeoisie and the landlord class were not the only groups that are members of the «Union of October 17th». However Octobrists faced with serious problems, attracting to its ranks of workers and peasants of the Russian population, because they are more focused on employers rather than workers. For example, as the researchers note, an important role in the creation of the "Union of October 17th" played factory owners Brusnitsyns in St. Petersburg [3, p.122]. But by 1917 Octobrists altogether lost control of the labor movement. Thus, despite the constant positioning of the political parties of the Russian Empire as all-estates, in reality, they pursued the interests of certain groups of the population, which was due to the specific social and political structure of the Russian state of this epoch.
GLOBAL ECONOMY
197-206 1155
Abstract
What are the future global systems developments? It remains one the biggest unknown, especially in terms of energy, as it is globally considered as both cause and solution for multiple problems of the humanity. Therefore, nowadays a number of experts are exploring driving forces, critical uncertainties and unknowns that have an influence on future energy systems development. This article aims at providing a brief investigation of existing world energy scenarios that cover the range of plausible outcomes of future global energy system development. Those are represented by International Energy Agency, World Energy Council, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and others. The analysis covers both qualitative and quantitative indicators of the world energy system development that provide for future worldview formation. The article looks into various approaches to energy system development forecasting and scenario building employed by the abovementioned organisations, and discovers the motives for making assumptions as the means of attaining internal targets and the consequences of the distinction of individual attitude to the development trends within the expert community. The current assessment implies grouping of the most advanced of the existing energy system development models, identification their advantages and disadvantages, and shows differences in modeling approaches used in a number of specialized international organisations.
REGULATION OF «BANKING GROUP» IN RUSSIA IN BANKING MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS IN THE MODERN CONDITIONS
207-218 851
Abstract
The article says about the specific regulation of banking groups in Russia and applicability of the category in corporate structuring M&A practices. Relevancy and importance of the research are based on increasing attention of the regulatory authorities to the disclosure of grounds and means of establishing a control over groups of entities and, controlling of expenses of funding from the budget of the State Corporation "Deposit Insurance Agency", the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The article discusses the definitions banking group", "banking holding", "group of entities", "group of entities connected to a credit institution", consolidated "banking group" and applicability of the definitions to filing of the group statements, the use of the banks' (banking group) indicators, the applicability of these data to the efficient allocation of resources and the rehabilitation of the Russian banking system. This paper analyzes the current regulations, the author refers to the indicator maximum risk associated with the credit institution a person (a group associated with the credit institution officials), as well as a new version of the indicator maximum amount of loans, bank guarantees and sureties issued by a credit institution (banking group) to its members (shareholders) and the procedure for calculating them, which come into force from January 1,2016. At the end of the article the author suggests possible options to improve current regulations. The urgency of the problems mentioned is confirmed by cases from practice, which point to the problems identified. The novelty of the work lies in the complex economic and legal approach to risk management to ensure information transparency of banks in the performance of the duty of notification (approval) of transactions with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the disclosure and reporting its performance. This approach acknowledges the practical importance of the conclusions. Based on the research the author suggests legal developments to the regulations of mergers and acquisitions of banks in Russia.
219-233 1158
Abstract
The article deals with the economic ties between Georgia and four countries neighbouring the Caucasus region: Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Kazakhstan. The authors focus their attention on regional analysis and, for comparison, give figures on Georgia's relations with three global players: the USA, the EU, and the PRC. The authors postulate at least three challenges to Russia’s interests in Georgia. First, both Georgian establishment and society regard integration with the EU and NATO as main goal of the state, which in case of NATO evidently contradicts Russian national interests. Second, from the economic point of view, the USA is no longer a financial driver of Georgian reforms. The EU, main trade partner of Georgia for the past 15 years, has replaced it. The CIS surpasses the EU in commodity turnover with Georgia, however it is in fact an amorphous organization that formally combines its member-states and lacks for common economic policy, unlike the European Union that acts as an integration association. Third, Chinese investment in Georgian infrastructure within the "New Silk Way" project serves as a ponderable alternative to Russian financial flow. For a comprehensive analysis of the situation the authors used some figures concerning commodity trade, FDI, cross-border financial flows, tourism, and transport development. Major pipeline branches, including the planned projects, are taken into account as well. The findings are based on the results of desk research, and on empirical data obtained through meetings with Georgian government officials.
SCIENTIFIC LIFE
234-241 692
Abstract
Applied foreign policy analysis is the hallmark of MGIMO-University. 2016 marks 40th anniversary of introduction of this element to the identity of our university in a form of Problem Research Laboratory. MGIMO development as a leading think tank took place in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in close cooperation with other key institutions that shape foreign policy and are responsible for ensuring the national interests of Russia in the world. Today MGIMO's priority is the development of political policy expertise and analytical development-oriented scientific and practical support of the activities of state bodies. Such studies are the main but not the only focus of the Institute of International Studies.
BOOK REVIEWS
245-250 627
Abstract
Morozov V.M. "Russian" Israel: the impact of immigrants on Russian-Israeli relations. Moscow: MGIMO- University, 2015. 165 p.
251-257 549
Abstract
The Present International Situation: Civilization, Ideology, Elites / A.I.Podberezkin, V.G.Sokolenko, S.R. Tsyrendorzhiev. Moscow: MGIMO-University, 2015. 464p.
ISSN 2071-8160 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)