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MGIMO Review of International Relations

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No 4(43) (2015)

ENERGY POLICY AND DIPLOMACY: TO THE 15<SUP>TH</SUP> ANNIVERSARY OF INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENERGY POLICY

9-17 743
Abstract
Nowadays when aspects of global energy security advanced to the forefront and Russia is going to reinforce its leading role in the world energy community, International institute of energy policy and diplomacy (MIEP) organized for the first time in Russia the training of world class experts in the field of energy diplomacy and geopolitics, economics, law, management and public relations, all focused on international energy cooperation. Such energy professionals are extremely sought after by public authorities and international institutions as well as by major international energy companies. MIEP MGIMO is the only study center in Russia and in the whole worlds which is successfully training specialists armed with fundamental academic knowledge and detailed studying of global processes in the sphere of energy diplomacy and geopolitics, international energy cooperation. Alumni of MIEP are outstanding high-caliber professionals who can fluently speak several foreign languages. This day MIEP is a large study, methodic and scientific center ensuring high-quality professional and fundamental training based on the best practices of Russian education as well as on the practices of worldleading universities and business schools.This year International institute of energy policy and diplomacy celebrates its 15th anniversary. This article describes history, evolution of MIEP; unique specific departments and international institutions created in cooperation with prestige European universities; reveals specific features of training of specialists. Soon MIEP plans to accomplish a lot of research and development projects assisted by the best academic staff in close cooperation with international organizations, administrations of the largest petroleum producing regions, top oil and gas corporations-strategic partners (Rosneft, Transneft, Rosseti, Gazprombank), top universities and scientific centers all over the world.
18-26 1399
Abstract
The article deals with the retrospective of relations between Russia, USA and EU in the sphere of energy security, as well as their interaction regarding the current political crisis in the Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the evolution of the key actors'positions and the development of their relations within the framework of the regulatory regimes established by the most significant agreements in the energy sphere. In conclusion the authors claim that what they say in their article not only does substantially reinforce the arguments set forth by Professor Giuseppe Guarino, who argues about the negative consequences caused by the dictatorship of the Brussels's bureaucracy within the EU, but also inflicts another blow on the Maastricht Treaty and the Treaty of Lisbon in terms of external policy and trade, since the both Treaties were designed to convert the EU in a real competitor of the United States in the then forming multipolar World. The Brussel's bureaucracy, having turned into a dutiful instrument of the US geopolitical strategy, hindered the movement of the EU in that direction, while its dictatorship in energy security aggravates the crisis situation of the EU, almost pushing the EU to the brink of collapse and disintegration. We have lately witnessed an evolving and growing phenomenon of the so called "Euroscepticism". The results of the Europarliament elections in late May, 2014, were a graphic demonstration of the symptoms of this alarming for the EU disease, when the anti-EU parties in the four out 22 EU countries won the elections (France, United Kingdom, Denmark, and Greece) Those results, regardless of the panic headlines in mass media and statements like "shocking" or "earthquake" made by some politicians, were not able to significantly affect the nature of the European Parliament, though they can significantly complicate its work. This is so far the first "alarming bell" tolling for the EU.
27-35 918
Abstract
One of the main problems of the Russian economy today is the development of the Arctic region. Given the key role of the energy sector in the economic balance of the country, as well as the problem of exhaustion of hydrocarbon resources, the Arctic is of particular interest from an economic and geopolitical point of view, ensuring the energy security of Russia. Active development of the region leads to the development of transport infrastructure, which is one of the priorities of Russia's energy policy. The issue of transportation plays a leading role in the context of the development of Arctic resources and involves a number of tasks. The first step is to ensure the safety of navigation in the Arctic ice. Also existing infrastructure needs substantial upgrading, as well as construction of new facilities (including ports, railways, roads, etc.). Of particular note is a unique transcontinental route - the Northern Sea Route. There is a need to modernize the Arctic Fleet, including the construction of modern icebreakers of the Arctic class. The current state of the port system, which does not fully meet the latest international standards, is of crucial importance as well. In addition, along the route the development of railway infrastructure is required. In addition, there is the problem of underdevelopment of the road network, which leads to a re-run and lack of access of some are as to the road network of Russia. Thus, the development of hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic region contributes to the development of infrastructure of the transport system in the region and, consequently, its economic development that contributes to the economic well-being of the country as a whole.
36-45 2567
Abstract
China is the most densely populated country in the world with high rate of economic growth resulting in higher demand for energy resources and in strive to guarantee stable supply of these resources. Chinese annual GDP growth in 2012 and 2013 was down to 7.7% comparing to 10% in 2000-2011 [7]. In 2012 and 2013 economic growth stumbled because of slowdown in manufacturing and exports, taking into account that Chinese government was eager to cut inflation and excessive investments in some segments of the market. Speaking about energy sector Chinese government is aimed at promotion of market-based pricing systems, activities for advanced energy efficiency and higher competition between energy companies, and increased investment in renewable energy resources. Considering renewables as one of many ways to diversify energy supplies, lower dependence on coal and improve environmental situation Chinese government actively supports and develops programs aimed at support of renewable energy industry in China. Chinese economic development is tightly attached to five-year plans. It seems important to mention the fact that main energy goals for current 12-th "five-year plan" are to achieve 15% renewables consumption and CO2 sequestration up to 40-45% by2020 in order to lower dependency on coal and improve environmental situation. As a result of Chinese state policy to develop renewables China achieved certain results in wind energy, helioenergetics, hydroenergetics and energy from waste recycling.
46-52 1263
Abstract
This article reveals the practice of "ship or pay" principle in the US, Canada and Europe. The authors analyze the practice of concluding contracts for oil and petroleum products transportation, procedures, terms and conditions stipulated in the contract. The "take or pay" principle is a common practice in developed countries like the US, Canada and the UK. The specific feature of the United States is that the pipelines are not built only for one shipper, but rather for all market, which is caused the "open season" tradition. In Canada, "take or pay" principle applies to cover the capital costs of the carrier. The main reasons for usage of terms "take or pay" are to minimize risks of the carrier, building or expanding his own pipeline network, by guaranteeing shipper's financial benefits after the putting pipeline into operation. "Take or pay" contracts cover the carrier's obligation to provide agreed minimum amount of petroleum to the consignor within a certain period. In turn, the shipper is obliged to accept the minimum amount of petroleum and pay, regardless of the fact of acceptance of oil. "Take or pay" principle is a kind of risk-sharing mechanism, which allows to shift the risks of non-fulfillment of the contract to the shipper. Besides, the "take or pay" principle can be indirect guarantee in the context of project financing, and therefore, financing. The article emphasizes the main advantages of the application of this principle and opportunities for its use in Russia.
53-63 976
Abstract
Amid instability of financial markets and macroeconomic situation the necessity of improving bank risk-management instrument arises. New economic reality defines the need for searching for more advanced approaches of estimating banks vulnerability to exceptional, but plausible events. Stress-testing belongs to such instruments. The paper reviews and compares the models of market risk stress-testing of the portfolio of different financial instruments. These days the topic of the paper is highly acute due to the fact that now stress-testing is becoming an integral part of anticrisis risk-management amid macroeconomic instability and appearance of new risks together with close interest to the problem of risk-aggregation. The paper outlines the notion of stress-testing and gives coverage of goals, functions of stress-tests and main criteria for market risk stress-testing classification. The paper also stresses special aspects of scenario analysis. Novelty of the research is explained by elaborating the programme of aggregated complex multifactor stress-testing of the portfolio risk based on scenario analysis. The paper highlights modern Russian and foreign models of stress-testing both on solo-basis and complex. The paper lays emphasis on the results of stress-testing and revaluations of positions for all three complex models: methodology of the Central Bank of stress-testing portfolio risk, model relying on correlations analysis and copula model. The models of stress-testing on solo-basis are different for each financial instrument. Parametric StressVaR model is applicable to shares and options stress-testing;model based on "Grek" indicators is used for options; for euroobligation regional factor model is used. Finally some theoretical recommendations about managing market risk of the portfolio are given.
64-73 1265
Abstract
Nuclear power in its present form was created during the Cold War and is its heritage. The main objective of nuclear energy at that time, along with energy, was the creation and accumulation of nuclear materials. To this aim a existing nuclear power plants based on uranium-plutonium cycle. Everything else - the processing of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, storage, recycling themselves nuclear power plant after its end of life, the risks of proliferation of nuclear materials and other environmental issues - minor. It was also believed that the nuclear power plant - the most reliable and safe plant. During the last twenty years all over the world the number of new orders for nuclear aggregates has decreased. That happens for a number of reasons, including public resistance, that the construction of new NPP and the excess of energy utilities in many markets, which is mainly connected with high market competition in energy markets and low economic indicators of the current nuclear utilities. The technology that consists of low capital costs, a possibility for quick construction and guarantied exploitation quality is on the winners side, but currently this technology is absent. However, despite abovementioned downsides, as the experience of state corporation "Rosatom"has shown, many developing countries of the South-east Asia, The middle East, African regions express high interest in the development of nuclear energy in their countries. The decision whether to develop nuclear energy or to continue to develop is, in the end, up to the choice of the tasks that a country faces. The article describes these "minor" issues, as well as geopolitical and economic problems of the further development of nuclear energy.

HISTORY: THE 70<SUP>TH</SUP> ANNIVERSARY OF THE END OF WORLD WAR II

74-83 1010
Abstract
One of the negative phenomena of the modern world are attempts to falsify history and the results of the Second World War, 1939-1945., is an important component of the ideological confrontation in the information space of neoliberal forces of Russian society with patriotic and non-violent, is a tool for achieving geopolitical goals of a number of states. United States, European Union and Ukraine tend to distort the results of the Second World War to remove the history of the Great Patriotic War, the feat of the Soviet people, who saved the world from fascism, and the Soviet Union (Russian Federation), together with Nazi Germany put in the dock of history, accusing all the troubles of the XX century. At the same time attempts to rehabilitate fascism and substitution postwar realities lead to the destruction of the entire system of contemporary international relations and, as a consequence, to the intensification of the struggle for the redivision of the world, including military measures. China is actively implementing the historiography of the statement that World War II began June 7, 1937 and is linked to an open aggression of Japan against China. Given these circumstances, the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation noted that the trend of displacement of military dangers and military threats in the information space and the inner sphere of the Russian Federation. The main internal risks attributable activity information impact on the population, especially young citizens of the country, which has the aim of undermining the historical, spiritual and patriotic traditions in the field of defense of the Fatherland.
84-93 974
Abstract
After the Second World War 70 years have passed. Essentially already gone a generation of people for whom it was not a story, and the nationwide disaster and personal experience. And let time more and more we move away from the victory of 1945, the value and results of the war are enormous for the future of the modern world. Memory of the Great Victory presents to all of us now living, special requirements, the main of which consists in the fact that based on the analysis draw the necessary lessons from the past, draw the right conclusions for the safety of modern Russia. Over the years, the world has changed considerably. On the stage of world politics, a host of new independent states. There are new centers of economic development, and hence the new poles of power. Meanwhile, the events of recent months show that the main results of the Victory have not lost their importance today. This is best spoken of their incessant attempts to challenge by distorting the main points of the war and its lessons. And, obviously, it is no accident the day before and during the celebration of 70th anniversary of Victory wishing her to steal the peoples of Russia have been particularly active, as they claim - stiff and awkward. For domestic historiography it is not something unexpected. On the socio-political, military and economic results of the Second World War written many works, but probably in the light of the development of military-political processes in the world of individual instructive lesson it is important not to forget.

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

94-101 1657
Abstract
Abstract: Shanghai Cooperation Oprganization is a multi-functional interstate regional organizaton. One of the main priorities in the activities of the SCO is a cooperation in providing regional security and stability in the areas of counteraction against terrorism, separatism, extremism, drug tarfficking, other types of trans-border organized crime and against use of information-communication technologies in destructive purposes. There are all grounds to suppose that in forthcoming years the SCO, especially considering broadening the circle of its permanent state-members, will do some steps in direction of practical application of its latent potential in prevention and settlement of conflicts. Development of the SCO own peacekeeping instruments fully corresponds to the character and scales of security threats and tendencies of their evolution on the modern stage. Such a mechanism in arsenal of the SCO could play deterring role regarding latent local conflicts in its zone of responsibility. Obvious «plus» of involving the SCO in the peacekeeping sphere lays in the fact that its key members China and Russia - both are permamnent members of the UN Security Ciuncil, large powers, possessing serious financial capabilities, military and military-technological resources and rich experience of participation in peacekeeping operations. This is exactly Russia and China who would be able to share main responsibility of organization and financing the SCO peacekeeping operations. Emphasis on promoting settlement of conflicts, peacekeeping and strenhthening of confidence in the military sphere could become one of key vectors of converting the SCO into the regional security community and even become a foundation for the new system of security of Eurasia in the future.
102-110 6595
Abstract
The author argues that the emergence of the first permanent intergovernmental (IIGO) and non-governmental (INGO) organizationsin the second half of the XIX-th century was due to common causes. He tries to justify the need to consider them not as independent objects of study, but as the phenomenon, caused by the high level of internationalization of economic life of states and of socio-economic consequences of the industrial revolution, reached in this period. The emergence of IIGOs, based on international treaty, was accompanied by establishment of a large number of INGOs operating in similar fields of human activity, which performed supplementary functions and regulated areas of cooperation and public needs, not covered by interstate agreements. The article presents the main factors that in later stages of internationalization and development of contemporary international relations gave the impetus to emergence and development of international organizations, including the military-technological revolution, that gave birth to mass destruction weapons and avalanche-like growth of the number of human and material losses during wars and military conflicts, the Cold War between world communism and world capitalism, the collapse of the colonial system and formation ofa new main contradiction of the world politics between the "Club of rich countries" and states of the "global periphery", beginning of development of regional integration processes and, finally, the emergence of global problems. The article emphasizes that both IIGOs and INGOs evolved from the supportive tools in implementation of multilateral interaction of sovereign states towards becoming an integral part of contemporary international relations, fulfilling many vital functions of modern human society and its citizens. Given the involvement of the overwhelming majority of modern sovereign states and tens of thousands of civil society organizations in activity of numerical IIGOs and INGOs, none of the existing centers of world power can afford to trample down and to subordinate activities of all these international organizations. The development of IIGOs and INGOs makes any attempts to create a unipolar system of contemporary international relations impossible.
111-118 1614
Abstract
The article studies the processes of Internet governance at the international level in the context of the position and interests of Russia in this area. The theory of global governance was used as a theoretical and methodological framework of the study. Initially, Internet governance was carried out on the state level, with coordination carried out in the interests of the United States created the Internet. At the present stage states and other actors in world politics has to be integrated into the existing system of Internet governance, resulting in development of multi-level or multi-directional diplomacy, formation of the so-called "hybrid" organizations and new models of cooperation. There are new formats of regulation of international relations formed under the influence of scientific and technological progress. Russia's position on Internet governance is based on the goal to ensure equal consideration of interests of all states in the governance of the Internet.
119-129 904
Abstract
The article deals with security, including informational, educational environment. The article considers experience of the United States and Europe, including specific examples. Given a classification of the major threats and they are allocated on the basis of foreign and domestic experience. The article also determines the range of problems actually facing educational institutions and regularly described in special reports on the subject. Provides an overview of a set of measures designed to regulate access to inappropriate content, with special attention given to the phenomenon of social networks that put new challenges in ensuring security of the educational environment.
130-138 1713
Abstract
This article analyses discussions between representatives of three schools in the theory of international relations - realism, liberalism and constructivism - on the driving factors of nuclear proliferation. The paper examines major theoretical approaches, outlined in the studies of Russian and foreign scientists, to the causes of nuclear weapons development, while unveiling their advantages and limitations. Much of the article has been devoted to alternative approaches, particularly, the role of mathematical modeling in assessing proliferation risks. The analysis also reveals a variety of different approaches to nuclear weapons acquisition, as well as the absence of a comprehensive proliferation theory. Based on the research results the study uncovers major factors both favoring and impeding nuclear proliferation. The author shows that the lack of consensus between realists, liberals and constructivists on the nature of proliferation led a number of scientists to an attempt to explain nuclear rationale by drawing from the insights of more than one school in the theory of IR. Detailed study of the proliferation puzzle contributes to a greater understating of contemporary international realities, helps to identify mechanisms that are most likely to deter states from obtaining nuclear weapons and is of the outmost importance in predicting short- and long-term security environment. Furthermore, analysis of the existing scientific literature on nuclear proliferation helps to determine future research agenda of the subject at hand.
139-143 970
Abstract
The author investigates the role and place of government in the modern energy sector of China. Due to unprecedented scale industrial processes of modernization and urbanization in China, high rates of economic development, the growth of living standards, China's dependence on energy imports every year is growing significantly. And this trend will continue in the coming decades, or even increase. In the foreseeable future, China will feel an acute shortage of energy resources. In this regard, there is a growing concern of the Chinese state-owned energy companies. Obviously, such a prospect is the Chinese leadership worries associated with the risk of failure in international transfers, chronic instability in the region, exporting energy, and the vicissitudes of the global energy. This problem is considered on the analysis of materials of the White books, special attention given to White book «China's energy policy - 2012». The article outlines the contours of energy security of China, the role of major players, including public authorities, government energy corporations, private businesses and the population. Particular attention is given to the Commission of National Development and Reforms, which main function is to form the five years' development plans. The special attention is given to the Concept of National Security of the China. Although attention is paid to issues related to the provision of energy interests of China abroad, including the production and transportation of energy resources, cooperation with governments of countries rich in raw materials. Analyzes the role of the state in providing control over the energy segment, in the framework of China's involvement to globalization process.
144-151 1130
Abstract
In recent years, a number of foreign policy concepts declared the importance of using the instruments of "soft power" to promote the national interests of a country. Soft power is the ability through political values, culture and foreign policy to influence others by forming attractiveness [18]. Germany is generally recognized as the leader in the resources of "soft power." The article discusses what kind of resources are deployed by Germany to increase its "soft power" in the Muslim direction of foreign policy. The Muslim world has its own specifics, which complicate the use of instruments of "soft power." Countries with large Muslim population are difficult to influence, as they differ from Europe in the civilizational respect, have their own customs and traditions which they strictly follow because of the nature of Muslim religion. The author notes that in the Muslim direction of foreign policy the problem for Germany lies in the fact that the formation of its attractiveness resulted in a significant flow of immigration of Muslims in the country. A part of immigrant Muslims tries to live isolated from European society, professes radical currents ofIslam and participates in military conflicts abroad, participation in which in the role of active player is ruled out by Germany. Failure to integrate them into German society and the lack of progress in the formation of its positive image in the Muslim countries resulted, on the one hand, in the split of German society, on the other hand, in the threat of absorption by foreign civilization, as it is observed now in Germany the presence of "soft power" of Muslim countries, which use its former and current citizens to influence German political course. The article was written within the constructivist methodology, which consider the "soft power" as a way of construction of social reality with the use of tangible and intangible resources for the formation of an attractive image of Germany in world politics.

WORLD POLITICS

152-158 1202
Abstract
The article is devoted to analyzing the interactions of local civilization in the world and in Eurasia. The authors pays close attention to the theoretical issues of the subject matter. They choose for their analysis the nonessential conception of civilization. It allows societies with in a single civilization with radically different views on the civilizational reference framework. This conception explains why there are more clashes within a civilization, then among them. Then the author dwell sont he issue of civilizational conflict in Eurasia. The focal point of the conflict is the clash between Russian and American local civilizations. The authors develop the most probable scenario of civilizational interaction, which is their arm conflict. Then they develop three variations of this scenario: optimistic, realistic and pessimistic. The authors believ et hatby2020 Western local civilization will lose its political monopoly. It means that Russia should be ready with successes with its integration projects in Eurasia. Other wise it can fall preyto China.
159-167 1834
Abstract
Civilizations are not a novel subject of research.Todaytheyareincreasinglypopularbothinaca demicandpoliticalspheres.State and non-state actors talk as if civilizations were real actors of world politics. The article outlines the intellectual map of civilizational research in world politics. It finds three actual and one possible directions of civilizational research, namely: civilizational dynamic, inter civilizational ethics, politics of civilizations and civilizational politics. The author stresses the importance of nonessentialist approach in civilizational dynamics studies, its leader being Peter Katzenstein. The rest of the article is devoted to cultivating the selected research direction. The author proposes to view civilizations as a strategic reference framework rather than a real actor of world politics. These reference frameworks are constructed on religious value basis and detailed in a shared literature corpus. They are heterogeneous and in a constant state of flux. It can be viewed as a continuum with one pole being a fundamentalist state of civilization and the opposite one - post secular state of civilization. The middle ground is occupied by secular civilization. The clash and dialogue are not among civilizations but rather among different states or social groups within and among civilizations. The most conflictual group is a fundamentalist one, its reference framework is totally determined by religious values. Compromise for such a group is impossible. The most cooperative group is post secular one since it is based on dialogue. The author concludes that dialogue is guaranteed among post secular societies within the Christian civilization. Within and among non-Christian civilizations dialogue is possible but not guaranteed.

POLITICAL SCIENCE

170-179 538
Abstract

The author makes an attempt to classify the political manifestations of social protest in postwar Japanese history. The author identifies five types of politically orchestrated social protest: ideological, socio-class, problem centered, conservative and local. The specificity of concrete forms of protest is analyzed from the points of view of their substance and organization. After the end of the cold war the ideological type of social protest which had earlier played the role of the ideological basis for the consolidation of the left opposition political forces, loses its initial driving force. The aggravating crisis of the traditional corporate model decreases the significance of the social-class protest which had been an instrument of pressure over state power in favor of an active policy in the social sphere/ Also diminishing in the present-day Japan is the conservative protest as a public dissent against the ruling party caused by weakening of its ability to take into acount the interests of specific social minorities that had traditionally been prioritized by state support. Meanwhile the problem-centered and local types of protest are gaining more importance in today’s Japan as they rely on a relatively broad social support. For the opposition parties social protest is nothing more than an opportunity to attract additional votes. Lacking any real chance of coming to power, these parties use mass protest mood for the consolidation of their electoral base. Many voters, disillusioned with the ability of political parties to extrapolate their opinion on the sphere of public policy decision-making, become more and more inclined not to come to the polls at all.

180-197 879
Abstract

This article, perhaps for the first time in Russian scientific and historical literature raises the question of the nature and character of the social protest in the Arab Palestinian society. Even before the creation of the State of Israel in 1948, the Arab population of Palestine entered an active stage of forming national consciousness and identity, which was parallel to the development of pan-Arab national liberation movement. Mass demonstrations of Palestinians in 1920, 1929 and 1936-1939 suggest that the main cause of the protest was the colonial policy of Great Britain, expressed in support the Zionist movement and, as a consequence – the impossibility for the leading Palestinian clans to realize their political ambitions. Taking into account the fact that the Palestinians have shown exceptional tenacity and will in the struggle for national independence, the international community has supported the UN decision to create on the territory of mandated Palestine two States – one Arab and one Jewish. However, due to the Arab-Israeli conflict and other well-known geopolitical reasons, the state of Palestine has not been created till now. Today the Palestinians are divided into four segments: refugees living outside of Palestine in other countries, the Arab population of Israel, the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In this article the author analyses the situation of the Palestinians on the territory of the historical Palestine and typical forms of protest and discontent in the Palestinian community at present. The article argues that the protest in the Palestinian society, as in the past, has a distinct anti-Israel and anti-Zionist orientation.

198-207 1024
Abstract

Economic globalization creates unfavorable conditions for some countries and social groups while the situation in other countries and social is becoming worse. That is why social problems are on the rise worldwide. Thus, social protest became the major cause of the Arab spring is. Social wave overwhelmed Western Europe and the USA. The solution of social problems depends not on the political will of the elite, but on the activity of the population, as the ruling circles will not adopt a policy of self-restrictions and concessions to the majority without the hard push from the bottom. The peculiar feature of India is the general satisfaction of the society with the political system and economic situation. At the same time the protests against specific cases and events in the country mobilize hundreds of thousands of people, be it corruption scandals or violence against women. However, cultural- civilizational factors contribute to the non-violent character of almost all mass actions. Another distinctive feature of India is the desire of the organizers of the protest to reject support of the major parties due to the belief that political leaders are interested more in strengthening their social base rather than in solving the concrete problems. There are different categories of social protest in India: peasant movements; scheduled castes' (Dalits, the former untouchables) movements; anti-corruption movements; environmental movements; backward caste movements; women's movements; tribal movements; industrial proletariat movements; students' movements; middle class movements; human rights movements. The first four movements are currently the most noticeable. Social protest has not, so far, led to any serious political instability. However, a certain development of the situation can generate it, as well as the rejection of the mainly peaceful methods. In this respect, Dalit movements, especially in case of further erosion of the caste system, are the subject of the greatest concern.

208-215 607
Abstract

Social protest in contemporary Indonesia is brought about by four important processes going on in the world lately namely modernization, globalization, westernization and democratization. These processes we can see in contemporary Indonesia gaining speed in the 21 century. There impact varies in different regions of the country, on various social groups of Indonesian population. As a consequence forms and modes of the social protest are different in diverse regions of the country and among various social and ethnic groups. Spontaneous social movements triggered by the drastic fall of the living condition of the wide masses of the country’s population are the most dangerous to the ruling elite. Certain steps of the local authorities which allow big business to exploit mineral and land resources and as a consequence deny local population of traditional sources of their livelihood derive strong protests and waves of mass demonstrations. Globalization which penetrates the country’s economy, political and social democratization and westernization provoke protest movements under Islamic banners and increase Islamic trends in Indonesian society. Nevertheless we may draw a conclusion that political risks following from social protest movements in contemporary Indonesia appeared to be minimal both to the ruling authorities and to the stability of the country’s political system.

216-221 554
Abstract

The article deals with causes and distinctive features of social protest movements in Iran through the prism of the effect that historic and contemporary developments have on them. The author analyses the most important factors that influence social activity during periods of exacerbating internal tensions in Iran. Great importance is attached to the Shia clergy ́s role in leading protest movements in the country before the Islamic revolution. Besides, the author evaluates the capacity of the ruling clergy to halt protests and ensure the majority ́s loyalty to the governing regime. Considerable attention is paid to the characteristics of the so-called «green movement» in which during 2011–2012. Again loudly declared himself to speak in support of popular uprisings in several Arab countries during the «Arab Spring». Under the influence of these events in Iran have again begun a protest against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In this regard, the Iranian authorities placed under house arrest of several opposition leaders, including Mousavi. Since then, the situation in Iran in general has stabilized. Moreover, the leaders of the «green» M. Mousavi and M. Kyarubi made a number of harsh anti-Western statements, in which he accused the West of choosing «wrong way» to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue by introducing anti-Iranian sanctions. They are, from the point of view of the opposition leaders, especially not hit the economic interests of the Iranian government and the Iranian citizen. The election in November 2013 the new president of Iran representative of the liberal camp Hassan Rouhani also had a positive impact on the containment of the Iranian opposition street protests.

222-228 792
Abstract

The article focuses on socio-political activism, main features of socio-political contradictions and the couses of the recent social protests in Thailand. Thailand has the longest democratic tradition among ther countries of South-east Asia. Yetbackin 1932 the country has changed the absoulute monarchy to a constitutional one. However in the XXth century Thailand had lived through more than five decades of authoritarianism. The number of military coupd'etats which took place in Thailand now equals to almost twenty. At the same time, despite such a long authoritarian rule the country witnessed the formation of various elements of civil society. In the second part of the XX century the student protests of 1973–1976 became the most vivid example of civic activism. The social protest in Thailand reached its most active phase in the first decade of this century when the country splitted into two camps – one of thes-o-called «Red Shirts» and Another One of the «Yellow Shirts». The «Red Shirts» supported billionere Thaksin Shinawatra, a Prime Minister of Thaialnd in 2001–2006. The «Yellow Shirts» opposed him. Thet women tioned camps created new social movements – «People's Alliance for Democracy» («Yellow Shirts») and «United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship» («Red Shirts»). Since 2006 Thailand has seen several stages of the development of the social protest. The most recent one starte din November 2013 and end edin May 2014 when after more than half a year of mass meetings in the country's capital Bangkok the military took power again.

229-241 696
Abstract

The article analyzes current spiritual-political and socio-economic situation in postreform China with the emphasis on newest tendencies in the social feeling and conscience. Such a gigantic socio- cultural laboratory as China, with the processes of modernization and archaization proper to it, gives much material disproving conceptions of unilinear historical progress and brining to light the Chinese particularity. The content of China elite identity and the reasons of its stability and continuity are analyzed on the basis of a profound excursus into history of the evolution of the «Confucians way of governance», that quite differs from the European model. In consequence of thousands years of selective breeding through the examination system and the stratagem mentality there was created, in the author’s opinion, not the political culture, but some type of the specific Chinese administrative behavior mode, based on «the moral consensus» between different clans of elite, this time leaded by Xi Jinping, and composed by the «shanghai» and the «komsomol» factions. Contemporary partocracy regime of PRC inherited all the negative characteristics of soviet «nomenclature» such as hierarchy career based on loyalty, bureaucracy privileges, special rations and advantages, nepotism, corruption and so on, but has created specific Chinese system of «soft» succession of power from generation to generation. At the same time, the confluence of political and business elites is taking place and the state and society interests are more and more subordinated to their corporative Ames, that provoke so called «new leftist» movement against the irrational redistribution system. The CCP new leadership exploits the «Chinese dream» rhetoric and anticorruption assault to get the national consensus and conserve its monopoly on political power. However, the social-economic structures sophistication and the new social contradictions and conflicts intensification, the now days economic crisis evidences about, draw attention to the crucial importance of democratization and creation of the new nontraditional political system for up to date diagnosis, softening and salvation of such conflicts.

GLOBAL ECONOMY

242-254 661
Abstract

The main task of this research is the analysis of the key imbalances in the Indian economy, as well as their reasons and consequences. The article highlights the main directions of the Indian government’s policy in the 1990–2000s aiming to overcome these imbalances. The author focuses on the imbalances in the financial, real and external economic sectors of the Indian economy and underlines features of using labour, financial, scientific and technical resources, which are necessary for its successful development. The article underlines contradictory conditions of the present economic development in India and coexistence of the capitalist and pre-capitalistic ways of production (the small-scale industry), including the cottage industries, in the Indian real sector. At the same time the contemporary economic policy of the Indian government doesn’t aim at the elimination of the pre-capitalistic way of production but at the large-scale business’ activity restrictions in the sphere of the small-scale industry. This policy aims at the creation of favorable economic conditions for the small-scale industry. The author notes the main problems of the social sector of the Indian economy and in the human resources development and points out in the sphere of education the unresolved problems connected with equality of educational opportunities and availability of secondary and higher education for the considerable strata of the Indian population and also with deterioration of academic standards etc. The article also presents statistical data on the present state of the Indian external debt, fiscal deficit, the foreign exchange reserves as well as the dynamics of the Indian external trade, foreign direct investments’ inflow and remittances of the Indian diasporas.

255-262 651
Abstract

This article is devoted to the analysis of restructuring in the Russian production sector basing on the worldwide experience of innovative industrial policy with the focus on the role of the government in this process. While the author in the article identifies de- and re-industrialization trends, cluster systems organization as well as development of national innovation systems (NIS) as crucial processes in the global industry great attention is paid to the role of the state in these processes. International practice in developed countries shows that the state plays key role in industrialization process acting as a brainchild in setting target values for R&D industrial expansion implementing institutional, infrastructure, preferential as well as tax relief forms of support. Major advanced economies devote considerable attention to creation of supportive environment for industrial development, including implementation of national innovation systems (NIS) as well as elaboration of the institutional infrastructure industry development programs. Global market industrial trends analysis shows that production sector together with its innovative development will remain a major priority and a driving force in global economic growth. Taking into account present situation of the Russian economy which can be described as critical, time factor is considered to be of great importance, making it necessary to adopt accelerated development model in the Russian economy reforms. A key question to consider is what actions should be adopted by the government to ensure acceleration in economic development of the country.

263-270 1776
Abstract

Today Norway is a highly developed country with a predominantly service sector in the economic structure. However, oil continues to play a major role in the life of the state and society as one third of state revenues is based on oil resources, while export of raw materials totals more than a half of the country's overall export. However, it is not quite possible to cover the entire oil sector in Norway within the scope of one piece of work due to the differences in the characteristics of each of the three sources of the country's oil. In this context, the resources of the Norwegian and Barents Seas are associated with the problems of the Arctic and the Arctic law. At the same time, the North Sea is the most regulated area, besides it is the so called "homeland" of the oil production in Norway. Thus, this paper analyzes the role of the North Sea oil in the economy of Norway, which is the basis of its economic prosperity. Due to its oil revenues, Norway was once able to build a welfare state. Also the unique system of accumulation of oil revenues, which is reflected in the functioning of the Government Pension Fund of Norway, is a relevant issue as well. The article deals with the emergence of the oil industry in the country from a historical perspective, and analyzes its current state, including a detailed analysis of the existing fields and pipelines. Furthermore, the authors propose the estimation of state revenues from the oil production in the North Sea.

271-277 3173
Abstract

In this study the author reveals the essence of the financial crisis and examines the various types of financial crises. By studying the literature on financial crises, the author of the studypays attention to three specific areas: the definition of the crisis, the manifestations of the crisis and the types of financial crises. The article notes that the term "financial crisis" is widely used in a variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose most of their nominal value, but it does not necessarily lead to changes in the real economy. The financial crisis is a crisis that is systematically covers financial markets and institutions of the financial sector, international finance, money circulation and credit, state, municipal and corporate finance. Financial crises have common elements, but they come in different forms. Financial crises are generally multidimensional events and are difficult to characterize using a single indicator. The author considers the following types of financial crises: a banking crisis, a currency crisis, speculative bubbles and international financial crises. Banking crisis is a situation when a bank faces with a sudden outflow of depositors' funds. A currency crisis is a situation when the exchange rate, which is pegged to the currency of another country, is on the verge of collapse, causing committed speculation. A speculative bubble is in the case of large, sustainable overpricing of any asset class. Financial crises are reflected in a sharp rise in interest rates, a collapse in exchange rates, massive withdrawal of deposits from banks and credit crunch, currency and debt crisis.

278-284 730
Abstract

With increasing role of transnational corporation (TNC) questions of corporate financial soundness analysis and prediction methods are gaining momentum. This article highlights the key aspects of financial soundness of corporations. The author compared the economic notion of financial soundness in theory and in practice. Also, specified the concept of financial soundness («stability», «sustainability», «solvency», «soundness», «financial distress) used in Russia and internationally. The existing academic approach in terms of financial soundness assessment is different from the view of international organizations and corporations. The article stated that Russian researches in general see financial soundness as a mix of liquidity and solvency whereas in practice the financial soundness is a more multivariate concept. International Monetary Fund, Ministry of Regional Development and Central Bank of Russia extend the concept of financial soundness adding the profitability and specific ration into the analysis. Foreign authors use different models of financial soundness ranging from statistical, mathematical to special ratings. In practice there is also no definitive understanding of financial soundness based on the analysis of financial information of Rosneft, Alrosa, and Tatneft.

Compared Russian and foreign academic approach, government and international instructions of IMF, Ministry of Regional Development and Central Bank of Russia and stated the main characteristics of financial soundness, an author gives its definition.

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ISSN 2071-8160 (Print)
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