Preview

MGIMO Review of International Relations

Advanced search

APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021

https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2016-4-49-218-234

Abstract

The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.

About the Author

V. V. Kabernik
PIR Center
Russian Federation

Member of the PIR Center EKS Working Group on International Information Security and Global Internet Governance,

Druzhinnikovskaya str., 30, p. 1, office 110



References

1. Arbatov A.G. Mnogostoronnee iadernoe razoruzhenie [Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament]. Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie. 25. 05. 2012.URL: http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2012-05-25/1_nuclear.html. (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

2. Vil'danov M.P. Neravnopravnoe partnerstvo [Unequal partnership]. Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie. 22 04 2016. URL: http://nvo.ng.ru/gpolit/2016-04-22/1_partnership.html (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

3. Dvorkin V.A. Iadernyi psikhoz: komu on nuzhen? Stsenarii napadeniia NATO na Rossiiu i naoborot – polnyi absurd [Nuclear psychosis: who needs it? NATO attack on Russia, and vice versa - is absurd]. Voennopromyshlennyi kur'er. 29 07 2015. No. 28 (594). URL: http://vpk-news.ru/articles/26289 (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

4. Kozin V.P. Kliuchevye problemy (SNV, TIaO, PRO, DOVSE) [Key issues (START, tactical nuclear weapons, missile defense, the CFE Treaty)]. Analitika RISI. 22 01 2014. URL: http://riss.ru/analitycs/4702/ (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

5. Kozin V.P. Anakonda PRO SShA [Anaconda of US antimissiles]. Segodnia.ru.19 08 2015. URL: http://www.segodnia.ru/content/165225 (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

6. Kozin V.P. Moskva i Parizh: vzaimnyi otkaz ot pervogo iadernogo udara [Moscow and Paris: mutual renunciation of nuclear first strike]. Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie. 02 04 2012. URL: http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2012-03-30/7_msk_paris.html (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

7. Novaia nestabil'nost' [The new instability]. Kommersant" Den'gi. 16.05.2016. №19. P. 53. URL: http://kommersant.ru/doc/2978917 (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

8. Ostroukhov I., Sosnovskii M., D'iachenko V. V. Effektivnost' iadernykh sil nado povysit' [Efficiency of nuclear forces should be raised] Natsional'naia oborona. 2016. № 7. URL: http://www.nationaldefense.ru/includes/periodics/armedforces/2014/1017/145314357/detail.shtml (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

9. Otkaz ot konfrontatsii. Vozvrashchenie k sderzhannosti i dialogu mezhdu Rossiei i Zapadom [Away from confrontation. Return for restraint and dialogue between Russia and the West]. Komissiia po problemam glubokogo sokrashcheniia iadernogo oruzhiia. Institut issledovanii problem mira i politiki bezopasnosti pri Gamburgskom universitete, 2016. URL: http://www.imemo.ru/files/File/ru/events/2016/DeepCutsThirdReport-June2016-RZ_RUS.pdf (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

10. Zaiavlenie Rossiiskoi Federatsii otnositel'no protivoraketnoi oborony [Declaration by the Russian Federation on missile defense]. Web site of the President of the Russian Federation, 2010. URL: http://kremlin.ru/supplement/511 (accessed 18. 08. 2016). (In Russian).

11. Civiak R. The Reliable Replacement Warhead Program. Livermore: Tri-Valley CAREs, 2006. 30 p. URL: http://www.trivalleycares.org/tvc_rrw_fnl.pdf (accessed 18. 08. 2016).

12. Delpech Th. Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2012. 181 p. URL: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2012/RAND_MG1103.pdf (accessed 18. 08. 2016).

13. Kaplan F. Rethinking Nuclear Policy. Foreign Affairs. September-October 2016. URL: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2016-08-01/rethinking-nuclear-policy (accessed 18. 08. 2016).


Review

For citations:


Kabernik V.V. APPROACHES TO BUILDING OF GLOBAL STRATEGIC DETERRENCE SYSTEM PAST 2021. MGIMO Review of International Relations. 2016;(4(49)):218-234. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2016-4-49-218-234

Views: 694


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2071-8160 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)