Security Strategy: Governing the Future instead of Deterring It

Alexei I. Podberezkin – Doctor of Economics, professor of world and national history, direc- Doctor of Economics, professor of world and national history, director of the Center for Military and Political Studies of the Russian Foreign Ministry MGIMO. E-mail: vestnik@mgimo.ru
 
Archive: 
Вся статья: 

The article attempts to present a new vision for the strategic development of the Russian Federation. The authors note that the search for strategy should be made on the meta-level analysis in order to take into account either the military and political context of national security or the future interests of Russia. This allows one to reduce uncertainty in the strategic planning process.

The author notes that the current military-political strategy of Russia is based on a fairly old idea of deterrence. This strategy is reactive in nature and involves responding to external challenges and threats in the international political environment. Meanwhile, the global political landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, in which a key aspect of national security will be a wide range of connectivity options to further political development of the state and society.

Another disadvantage of deterrence strategy is that the threats are not differentiated from national interests and political goals. The author offers his version of the conceptualization of the terminology and the essential differences of different types of threats and assess the consequences of misunderstanding such differences.

As for the strategy of deterrence, the authors suggest an alternative strategy of “control”, which aims at the formation of a systemic perspective directions of development of the society. A key element of this strategy is the forging and maintenance of the national human capital, which provides connectivity, adaptability and innovationability of various branches of the governance and dealing with external challenges. “Control” means an intensification strategy of the state policy in the field of science, culture, the promotion of spiritual development and production of advanced innovation.

Key words: strategy, deterrence, management strategy, the national human capital, interest, political goal.

References
1. Kontseptsiia vneshnei politiki vneshnei politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Utverzhdena Prezidentom Rossiiskoi Federatsii V.V.Putinym 30 noiabria 2016 g.). [Russian Foreign Policy Conception]. MID Rossii, 01.12.2016. Available at: http://www.mid. ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2542248 (Accessed 17.02.2017). (In Russian)
2. Prokopenko A. Minfin predlagaet sokratit’ voennye raskhody na 6% [Russian Ministry of Treasury proposes 6% military budget cut]. Vedomosti, 09.09.2016. Available at: http://www.vedomosti.ru/ economics/articles/2016/09/09/656321- minfin-voennie-rashodi (In Russian)
3. Poslanie Prezidenta Federal’nomu Sobraniiu. 1 dekabria 2016 goda [President’s Address to Federal Assembly]. Prezident Rossii. Available at: http://kremlin.ru/ events/president/news/53379 (In Russian)
4. Strategiia nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiia Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Strategy of Science and Technology Development in Russian Federation]. SNTR portal. Available at: http://sntr-rf.ru/upload/iblock/ dc8/Ukaz%20Prezidenta%20RF%20 o%20Strategii%20nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo%20razvitiia%20Rossiiskoi%20 Federatsii.pdf (In Russian)
5. Strategiia natsional’noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii. (Utverzhdena Ukazom Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 31 dekabria 2015 g). Prezident Rossii. Available at: http://kremlin.ru/acts/ bank/40391/print (In Russian)
6. Bell M. Knowledge Systems and Technological Dynamism in Industrial Clusters in Developing Countries. World Development, 1999, vol. 27, no. 9, pp. 1715-1734.
7. Freedman L. Framing Strategic deterrence. Old Certainties, New Ambiguities. The RUSI Journal, 2009, vol. 154, no. 4, pp. 46-50.
8. Georghiou L., Harper J.C. Rising to the challenges—Reflections on Future-oriented Technology Analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, vol.80, no. 3, pp. 467–470.
9. Gray C.S. Deterrence in the new strategic environment. Comparative Strategy, 1992, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 247-267.
10. Keller W. Absorptive capacity: On the creation and acquisition of technology in development. Journal of Development Economics, 1996, vol. 49, pp. 199-227.
11. Mihăilă V. Security Branding and National Security. Concepts at Work. Procedia — Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2015, vol.187, pp. 424-428. 12. Rinne M. Technology roadmaps: Infrastructure for innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2004, vol. 71, no. 1-2, pp. 67-80. 13. Ven Bruusgaard K. Russian Strategic Deterrence. Survival, 2016, vol. 58, no 4, pp. 7-26.

DOI 10.24833/2071-8160-2017-1-52-7-20 (Read the article in PDF)