Russia Relations and Arms Control: Breaking the Clinch
Natalia I. Bubnova – Ph.D. in History, Leading Researcher, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, Profsoyuznaya str. 23, Moscow 117997. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
The article examines the new U.S. administration’s outlook on arms control, analyses the existing problems in this field and possible ways for their resolution, compares Donald Trump’s statements on military and political issues with the president’s first steps in this area, and offers forecasts and recommendations on the prospects for U.S.-Russia cooperation in arms limitations and reductions. The author proceeds from the assumption that arms control is a key component in measures to ensure international security. Even if the current tense U.S.-Russian relations provide little room for maneuver and the internal political struggle in DC sets limits on the possible bilateral measures, Moscow should nevertheless take initiative in putting forward a set of proposals to reduce weapons, especially in the very sensitive and risk-prone nuclear field. This will allow in future negotiations to proceed from options that will take into account Russian interests and the specifics of Russia’s weapons systems, while at the same time showing the resolve of the nuclear superpowers to reduce existing threats through negotiations and leading the way for other countries to join. Taking into account the importance of arms control, all efforts should be made to enforce the existing treaties, consolidate the current international treaty-based legal system, and work further on new arms control and arms reduction agreements.
Key words: arms control, arms reductions, nuclear weapons, security, U.S.-Russia relations, Donald Trump, nuclear weapons, ballistic missile defense, New START, CFE Treaty, nonproliferation, cyber-security.
1. Arbatov A.G., Dvorkin V.Z. Bol’shoi strategicheskii treugol’nik [The Great Strategic Triangle] Working Papers, Carnegie Moscow Center, March 2013, 56 p. (In Russian).
2. Bezopasnost’ I kontrol’ nad vooruzheniiami 2015–2016. Mezhdunarodnoe vzaimodeistvie v bor’be s global’nymi ugrozami [Security and Arms Control 2015-2016. International Cooperation in Fighting against Global Threats]. Ed. by Alexei Arbatov, Natalia Bubnova. Moscow, IMEMO RAN; ROSSPEN Publ., 2016. 303 p. (In Russian)
3. Bubnova N.I. Voennyi faktor v politike Baraka Obamy [The military factor in Barack Obama’s policy]. Razoruzhenie I bezopasnost’ 2013–2014. Strategicheskaia stabil’nost’: problem bezopasnosti v usloviiakh perestroika mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii [Disarmament and Security 2013-2014: Strategic Stability: Security Issues in the Context of the Restructuring of the International Relations]. Alexei Arbatov, Natalia Bubnova, eds. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2014. 245 p. (In Russian)
4. Bubnova N.I. Rossiisko-amerikanskie otnosheniia v kontekste ukrainskogo krizisa: novye ipostasi kholodnoi voiny [The Russian-American relations in the context of the Ukrainian crisis: new faces of the cold war]. Rossiia I sovremennyi mir [Russia and the Contemporary World], INION RAN, IE RAN, 2015, no. 2, pp. 81–97. (In Russian)
5. Karaganov S.A. Vzaimnoe garantirovannoe sderzhivanie [Mutually assured deterrence]. Rossiia v global’noi politike - Russia in Global Affairs, 22.02.2017. Available at: http://www.globalaffairs.ru/pubcol/Vzaimnoe-garantirovannoe-sderzhivanie-18608 (accessed 24.02.2017). (In Russian)
6. Koltunov V.S. Peregovory ob ogranichenii sistem PRO v kontekste vzaimnogo sderzhivaniia [Negotiations on BMD limitation in the context of mutual deterrence]. Protivoraketnaia oborona: protivostoianie ili sotrudnichestvo? [Missile defense: confrontation and cooperation]. Ed. by A. Arbatov, D. Dvorkin. Carnegie Moscow Center, ROSSPEN, 2012. 367 p. (In Russian)
7. Mezhdunarodno-politicheskie usloviia razvitiia Arkticheskoi zony Rossiiskoi Federatsii [International political environment for developing the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation]. Ed. by A. Zagorski. Moscow, IMEMO Publ., 2015. 304 p. (In Russian)
8. Savelyev A.G. Sistema preduprezhdeniia o raketnom napadenii I strategicheskaia stabil’nost’ [Ballistic missile early warning system and strategic stability]. Mirovaya economika I mezhdunaqrodnye otnosheniaya [World Economy and International Relations], 2016, vol. 60, no. 12, pp. 40–50. (In Russian)
9. Chernenko E.V. Nachalo kholodnoi kibervoiny [The beginning of a cold cyberwar]. Rossiia v global’noipolitike - Russia in Global Affairs, 2016, no. 6. Available at: http://globalaffairs.ru/number/Nachalo-kholodnoi-kibervoiny-18488 (accessed: 12.12.2016). (In Russian)
10. Acton J.M. Beyond Treaties: Immediate Steps to Reduce Nuclear Dangers. Policy Outlook. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 2012. Available at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/10/10/beyond-treaties-immediate-steps-to-reduce-nuclear-dangers-pub-49612 (accessed 12.12.2016).
11. Marten K. Reducing Tensions Between Russia and NATO. Council Special Report, № 79. Council on Foreign Relations, March 2017. 51 p.
12. Newhouse J. Cold Dawn. The Story of SALT. Holt, Rinehart and Winston, New York, Chicago, San Francisco, 1973-1974. 302 p.