“Rediscovery” Of Knowledge About the Future: Perspectives of Russia’s Security Up To 2050

Sergey A. Kravchenko – Doctor of Philosophy, professor, head of sociological chair of the Russian Foreign Ministry MGIMO, 76. Prospect Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454, Russia. E-mail: sociol7@yandex.ru.
 
 
Alexei I. Podberezkin – Doctor of Historical Sciences, professor of world and national history, director of the Center for Military and Political Studies of the Russian Foreign Ministry MGIMO, 76. Prospect Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454, Russia. E-mail: vestnik@mgimo.ru.
 
Archive: 
Вся статья: 

The article deals with the dynamics of knowledge about the future, factors that determine the need for its »rediscovery« today, among which: the transition of mankind to the dominance of non-linear development; the destruction by globalization of the natural boundaries of civilizational formations, which led to direct interaction of local human civilizations and new conflicts between them; the formation of a unified socio-techno-natural reality; the emergence of complex systems potentially predisposed to the production of catastrophes disasters. This forced scientists to form new models of the future and, accordingly, to develop other theoretical and methodological tools of social forecasting on the basis of which scenarios of the medium-term (up to 2025) and long-term (up to 2050) visions of the international and military political situation are proposed.

The authors proceed from the assumption that the validity of these scenarios and the confidence in the knowledge of security should emerge from a comprehensive account of the main stable and variable factors that determine and form the scenarios of Russia’s development in these periods. The most suitable method for long-term forecasting is the longitudinal-scenario method which is based on the creation of a model of a probable scenario of the international and military political situation. In order to accomplish this goal, the model needs a large empirical array of information that is analyzed in several stages by taking into account the influence of the main objective groups of factors that ultimately makes it possible to single out and justify three strategic directions of ensuring Russia’s security in the twenty-first century. The article comes to conclusion that future scenarios of Russia’s development depend on subjective factors such as the quality and intentions of the ruling political elite.

Key words: future, dynamics of knowledge, security, longitudinal-scenario method, strategic prognosis, factors of development, scenario of development, humanistic turn, ruling elite.

References
1. Veber M. Protestantskaia etika i dukh kapitalizma [Protestant ethics and the spirit of capitalism]. In: M. Veber. Izbrannye proizvedeniia [Selected works]. Moscow, Progress Publ., 1990. 808 p. (In Russian)
2. Gorshkov M.K. Rossiiskoe obshchestvo kak ono est’: (opyt sotsiologicheskoi diagnostiki) [Russian society as it is (an attempt of sociological diagnosis]. In 2 Vol. Vol. 1. 2nd ed. Moscow, Novyi khronograf, 2016. 416 p. (In Russian)
3. Diurkgeim E. O razdelenii obshchestvennogo truda [On separation of social labor]. Moscow, Kanon Publ., 1996. 432 p. (In Russian)
4. Kargina I.G. Sotsiologicheskie refleksii sovremennogo religioznogo pliuralizma [Sociological reflection of modern religious pluralism]. Moscow, MGIMO–Universitet Publ., 2014. 278 p. (In Russian)
5. Kravchenko S.A. Mosty, soediniaiushchie raskoly sotsiologii radi bolee ravnopravnogo mira [Bridging the gaps in Social Science for more equal world]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia - Social studies, 2015, no. 2, pp. 29–38. (In Russian)
6. Kravchenko S. A. Budushchee: po materialam Foruma Mezhdunarodnoi sotsiologicheskoi assotsiatsii [The future: based on International Social Science Association Forum]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia - Social studies, 2016, no. 12, pp. 139–143. (In Russian)
7. Kravchenko S.A. Vostrebovannost’ gumanisticheskogo povorota v sotsiologii [The demand for humanitarian turn in social science]. Sotsiologicheskaia nauka i sotsial’naia praktika - Social science and social practice, 2013, no. 1, pp. 12–23. (In Russian)
8. Kravchenko S.A. Sotsiologiia riska i bezopasnosti [Social science of science research and security]. Moscow, Iurait Publ., 2016. 431 p. (In Russian)
9. Marks K. Ekonomiko-filosofskie rukopisi 1844 goda [Economic philosophical transcripts of 1844]. Sotsiologiia. Sbornik [Social science. Collected works]. Moscow, KANON-press-Ts, Kuchkovo pole Publ., 2000. 432 p. (In Russian)
10. Mezhnatsional’noe soglasie kak resurs konsolidatsii rossiiskogo obshchestva [Intra-national accord as resource of Russian society consolidation]. Ed. by L.M. Drobizheva. Moscow, Institut sotsiologii RAN Publ., 2016. 400 p. (In Russian)
11. Nikonov V.A. Molotov: nashe delo pravoe [Molotov: our enterprise is righteous]. Book 1. Moscow, Molodaia gvardiia, 2016. 248 p. (In Russian)
12. Parsons T. O sotsial’nykh sistemakh [On social systems]. Moscow, Akademicheskii proekt Publ., 2002. 832 p. (In Russian)
scenarios of the medium-term (up to 2025) and long-term (up to 2050) visions of the international and military political situation are proposed.
The authors proceed from the assumption that the validity of these scenarios and the confidence in the knowledge of security should emerge from a comprehensive account of the main stable and variable factors that determine and form the scenarios of Russia’s development in these periods. The most suitable method for long-term forecasting is the longitudinal-scenario method which is based on the creation of a model of a probable scenario of the international and military political situation. In order to accomplish this goal, the model needs a large empirical array of information that is analyzed in several stages by taking into account the influence of the main objective groups of factors that ultimately makes it possible to single out and justify three strategic directions of ensuring Russia’s security in the twenty-first century. The article comes to conclusion that future scenarios of Russia’s development depend on subjective factors such as the quality and intentions of the ruling political elite.
13. Podberezkin A.I. Veroiatnyi stsenarii razvitiia mezhdunarodnoi obstanovki posle 2021 goda [Probable scenarios of international situation development after 2021]. Moscow, MGIMO-Universitet Publ., 2015. 325 p. (In Russian)
14. Podberezkin A.I. Natsional’nyi chelovecheskii kapital [National human capital]. Vol. 1–3. Moscow, MGIMO-Universitet Publ., 2011–2013. 362 p. 362 p. 101 p. (In Russian)
15. Podberezkin A.I. Tret’ia mirovaia voina protiv Rossii: vvedenie v kontseptsiiu [The Third World War against Russia: introduction and approaches]. Moscow, MGIMO-Universitet Publ., 2015. 169 p. (In Russian)
16. Podberezkin A.I., Sokolenko V.G., Tsyrendorzhiev S.R. Sovremennaia mezhdunarodnaia obstanovka: tsivilizatsii, ideologii, elity [The current international situation: civilizations, ideologies. elites]. Moscow, MGIMO-Universitet Publ., 2015. 464 p. (In Russian)
17. Rossiiskii statisticheskii ezhegodnik 2016. Statisticheskii sbornik: Rossiia v tsifrakh [Russian statistical yearbook 2006. Russia in numbers]. Moscow, Rosstat Publ., 2016. 536 p. (In Russian)
18. Rossiia i mir v 2020 godu. Kontury trevozhnogo budushchego [Russia and the world in 2020. The contours of worrying future]. Moscow, Eksmo Publ., 2015. 384 p. (In Russian)
19. Rossiia na novom perelome: strakhi i trevogi [Russia on new edge: fears and alarms]. Moscow, Al’fa-M Publ., 2009. 160 p. (In Russian)
20. Rybakovskii L.L. Rezul’tativnost’ kak osnovnoi pokazatel’ otsenki sostoianiia i tendentsii rozhdaemosti [Outcome as the main parameter of birth trends evaluation]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniia - Social studies, 2016, no. 4, pp. 23–30. (In Russian)
21. Sorokin P.A. Sistema sotsiologii [The System of Social science]. Vol. 1. Sotsial’naia analitika: Uchenie o stroenii prosteishego (rodovogo) sotsial’nogo iavleniia [Social analytics: doctrine of the simplest social phenomenon]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1993. 447 p. (In Russian)
22. Elvell U. Teologicheskii entsiklopedicheskii slovar’ [Theoretical encyclopedical dictionary]. Moscow, Assotsiatsiia Dukhovnoe vozrozhdenie Publ., 2003. 1488 p. (In Russian)
23. Baudrillard J. The Gulf War Did Not Take Place. Bloomington, Indiana University Press Publ., 1995. 87 p.
24. Bauman Z. Collateral Damage. Social Inequalities in a Global Age. Cambridge, PolityPress Publ., 2011. 244 p.
25. Beck U. The Metamorphosis of the World. Cambridge, Polity Press Publ., 2016. 223 р.
26. Beck U. World at Risk. Cambridge, Polity Press Publ., 2010. 269 р.
27. Castells M. The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture. Vol. 1. The Rise of the Network Society. 2d ed. Oxford, Wiley-Blackwell Publ., 2010. 597 р.
28. Perrow Ch. Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies. New Brunswick, New Jersey, Rutgers University Press Publ., 1999. 464 p.
29. Perrow Ch. The Next Catastrophe: Reducing our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters. Princeton University Press Publ., 2011. 388 p.
30. Sassen S. Relocalizing the National and Harizontalizing the Global. 3rd Forum of Sociology. The Futures We Want: Global Sociology and the Struggles for a Better World. 10–14.07.2016, Vienna, Austria. 392 р.
31. Urry J. Climate Change and Society. Cambridge, Polity Press Publ., 2011. 217 р.
32. Urry J. What is Future? Cambridge, Polity Press Publ., 2016. 200 p.
33. Yanitsky O.N. Terrorist Infrastructure and Urban Milieu. Science and Education: Materials of the X International Research and Practice Conference. Vol. 2. Valdkraiburg, Munich, Vela Ferlag, 2015. Pp. 277–282.

DOI 10.24833/2071-8160-2017-4-55-210-226 (Read the article in PDF)