Forecast of International Security Threat of Russia in 2017

Andrey Olegovich Bezrukov – advisor of the President OJSC “NK” Rosneft”, Associate professor MGIMO-University. E-mail: a.o.bezrukov@yandex.ru.
 
 
Nikolay Jurievich Silaev – Senior Research Fellow of the Center of problems of the Caucasus and regional security MGIMO-University, Director of noncommercial partnership Caucasus cooperation. E-mail: nikolai.silaev@gmail.com
 
 
Andrey Andreevich Sushentsov – Program Director at the Valdai Club, the Head of the Foreign Policy Analysis Group, Associate Professor MGIMO-University.
E-mail: asushentsov@yandex.ru.
 
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The article analyzes the threats to international security of Russia in 2017. It presents the analysis of the twelve situations, the development of which could have a significant effect on the interests of Russia in the field of international security. There is the most probable scenario for every situation and a list of conditions of its occurrence. The objective of the forecast is reduction of uncertainty of the future and the promotion of reasonable hypotheses about its likely scenarios. The forecast task is to help decision-makers, mentally put yourself in a situation in which realized one of the scenarios for the future and to encourage them to calculate their possible actions. In the preparation of the forecast two scenario analysis tools were used: the allocation of two key variables, the ratio of which determines the spectrum of the analyzed scenarios, and the key events method, which consists of several stages and allows to evaluate the prospect of implementing the scenario observed in real time. Authors conclude that the USA with the new president will be forced to choose between maintaining global posture and keeping order at home, and the EU will be absorbed by internal issues. In 2017 for Russia is important to keep the positive dynamics in the Transatlantic and Grand Eurasia regions, and in the Middle East. For this purpose it is necessary to ignore the provocations – mainly in Europe. The source of a new crisis may be NATO members discouraged by lack of attention to them by the USA or allies of Russia.

Key words: international relations, international security, forecasting, uncertainty of the future, future scenarios, Russian-US relations, analytical simulation, scenario analysis.

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DOI 10.24833/2071-8160-2017-2-53-226-253 (Read the article in PDF)