The Albanian Factor of Destabilization of the Western Balkans: Scenario Approach

Elena G. Ponomareva – Dr. of Science (Political Sci.), Professor, the President of International Institute of the Development of Science Cooperation (MIRNaS). Russian, 25/1, Pyatnitskaya St., Moscow, 115035. E-mail: nastya304@mail.ru.
 
Archive: 
Вся статья: 

The Albanian factor of the Balkan policy, which received its first institutional design in the late 19th century – “Prizrenskaya League”, is currently a serious destructor of the situation in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and partially recognized Kosovo).

On the basis of historical, demographic, cultural, religious and political facts the article explores the nature of Albanian irredentism and provides a substantiation of the possibility of implementing the scenario of “Albanization”, the development of which can proceed in two directions. In the first case the question is of creating a pan-Albanian (con)federative polity under the provisional name of “Great Albania” in the territories of Albania, Kosovo, western Macedonia (Republic of Ilirida), south-eastern Montenegro (Malesia) and north-western Greece (Chameria). In the second case the question is of the unification of the territories of Albanian residence through the association of Islamic provinces of the countries of the region. Special role in the implementation of the scenario is played by the structures of international terrorism which regard Kosovo as one of the central training zones for militants. Substantiation of the probability of the development and implementation of the scenario is given in four key parameters, including political, economic, military and cultural and religious spheres.

Among the main actors of the scenario the author singles out the armed forces of Kosovo, Albanian paramilitary formations on the territory of western Macedonia, transnational corporations, private military companies, as well as the United States, Britain, Turkey and the Arab monarchies who support the project politically and financially. The article concludes that there is a need for an objective political assessment of the situation in the region, an analysis of security threats and risks of another round of destabilization of the Western Balkans. It has not only scientific but also practical implications for the formation of the Russian foreign policy agenda. Key words: the Western Balkans, Albanization, irredentism, separatism, “Great Albania”, international terrorism, world politics

References
1. Albaniia i albanskito identichnosti [Albania and Albanian identity]. Sofia, International centre for minority issues Publ., 2003. 301 p. (in Bulgarian).
2. Albanskii faktor v razvitii krizisa na territorii byvshei Iugoslavii. Dokumenty. Vol. I (1878-1997). [The Albanian factor in the development of the crisis in the former Yugoslavia. Documentation]. Moscow, Indrik Publ., 2006. 312 p. (in Russian).
3. Albanskii faktor krizisa na Balkanakh [The Albanian factor of the crisis in the Balkans]. Moscow, Institute of scientific information on social sciences Publ., 2004. 192 p. (in Russian).
4. Arliapova E.S. Natsionalizm – drug i vrag «Vostochnogo partnerstva» [Nationalism is a friend and enemy of the ‘’Eastern partnership’’]. Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’ – International Life, 2014, no 9, pp. 79-95 (in Russian).
5. Achkoska V. Ideјata za ‘’Golema Albaniјa’’ i albanizaciјata na Zapadniot del na Republika Makedoniјa [The idea of ‘’Greater Albania’’ and albanization of Western Macedonia]. Vest – News, 2001, no 248. (in Macedonian)
6. Batakovich D. Nova istorija srpskog naroda [New history of Serbia]. Belgrade, Nash dom Publ., 2002. 362 s. (in Serbian)
7. Batkovski T. Velikoalbanskata igra vo Makedonija [Albanian game in Macedonia]. Skopje, Mugri 21, 1994. 276 s. (in Macedonian)
8. Valev E.B. Yugoslavskij klubok [The Yugoslav tangle]. Geografiya –Geography, 1996, no 13, pp. 3-6. (in Russian).
9. Vishnyakov Y.V. ‘’Serbskaya Golgofa’’ glazami russkih diplomata i generala [‘’Serbian Calvary’’ through the eyes of Russian diplomat and General]. Voennoistoricheskij zhurnal – Military-historical magazine, 2016, no 4, pp. 52-59 (in Russian).
10. Gus’kova E.YU. Istoriya yugoslavskogo krizisa (1990-2000) [History of the Yugoslav crisis (1990-2000)]. Moscow, Russian law, 2001. 720 p. (In Russian).
11. Dokumenty vneshnej politiki SSSR [Documents of Soviet foreign policy]. Vol. I (11.07.1917 – 31.12.1918). Ed. by I. Zemskov, S. Majorov, I. Sadchikov, V. Hvostov, B. Shtejn]. Moscow, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the USSR, 1957. 772 p. (in Russian).
12. Zafirovski E. Tepanite imami predupreduvaat: nasilstvoto ќe prodolzhi se dodeka Senun Brisha e na sloboda [Imams warn that the violence will continue until Senun of Brisa on the settlement]. Vreme – Time, 2005, 6 June (in Macedonian).
13. Zafirovski E. Vo IVZ se vodi bitka meђu radikalniot islam i traditsionalniot islam [The battle between traditional and radical Islam]. Vreme – Time, 2015, 6 June (in Macedonian).
14. Ivanova Y.V. Albancy i ih sosedi [Albanians and their neighbours]. Moscow, Science, 2006. 367 p. (in Russian).
15. Istoriya Yugoslavii. In 2 vol. [History of Yugoslavia. Ed. by Y. Bromley. Vol. I]. Moscow, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 1963. 735 p. (in Russian).
16. Komatina B. Jugoslovensko-albanski odnosi 1979-1983: Beleshke i seħaњa ambasadora [Yugoslav-Albanian relations: notes and reflections of the Ambassador]. Belgrade, Service record of Yugoslavia, 1995. 412 p. (in Serbian).
17. Kosovo i Metohija u velikoalbanskim planovima 1878-2000 [Kosovo and Metohija in the great Albanian plans]. Belgrade, Institute of modern history, 2001. 316 p. (in Serbian).
18. Ovchinskij V.S. «Nezavisimost’» Kosovo v zerkale tenevoj politiki. Analiticheskij doklad [Kosovo’s “independence” is in the mirror of shadow politics. Analytical report.]. Moscow, INFRA-M, 2008. 32 p. (in Russian).
19. Oldridzh Dz. Diplomat [Aldridge J. Diplomat]. Oldridzh Dzh. Izbrannye proizvedeniya v 2 t. [Selected works in 2 vol.]. Vol. I. Moscow, Rainbow, 1984. Pp. 5-752 (in Russian).
20. Petranovich B. Jugoslovensko iskustvo sprpske nacionalne integracije [The Yugoslav art of the Serbian national integration]. Belgrade, Service record, 1993. 170 p. (in Serbian).
21. Pis’mo E. Hodzhi v CK VKP(b) o predystorii vozniknoveniya kosovskogo voprosa  i metodah ego resheniya. Vostochnaya Evropa v dokumentah rossijskih arhivov. 1944-1953’. Vol. II [Letter of E. Hodga to the Central Committee of the CPSU(b) on the background of the emergence of the Kosovo issue and the methods of its solution. In ‘’Eastern Europe in the documents from Russian archives. 1944-1953’’. Vol. II]. Moscow-Novosibirsk, Siberian chronograph, 1998. pp. 206-214. (in Russian).
22. Platoshkin N.N. Edi Rama – novaya albanskaya real’nost’ [Edi Rama-new Albanian reality]. Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’ – International life, 2017, no 8, pp. 68-75 (in Russian).
23. Ponomareva E.G. Bosniya i Gercegovina: gosudarstvo-fantom [Bosnia and Herzegovina: the phantom state]. Svobodnaya mysl’ – Free thought, 2009, no 1, pp. 69-84 (in Russian).
24. Ponomareva E.G. Novye gosudarstva na Balkanah [New States in the Balkans]. Moscow, MGIMO-University, 2010. 252 p. (in Russian).
25. Ponomareva E.G. Proekt «Kosovo»: mafiya, NATO i bol’shaya politika [The project “Kosovo”: the mafia, NATO, and big politics]. ‘De Conspiratione’. Moscow, Partnership of scientific publications KMK, 2013. Pp. 331-522 (in Russian).
26. Ponomareva E.G., Rudov G.A. “Gosudarstvo-bandit”: Kosovo v mirovoy sisteme [“State-bandit”: Kosovo in the global system]. Obozrevatel’ – Observer, 2013, no 5, pp. 67-76 (in Russian).
27. Ponomareva E.G., Rudov G.A. Evrazijskaya integraciya i civilizacionnoe prostranstvo Rossii [Eurasian integration and civilizational space of Russia]. Obozrevatel’ – Observer, 2013, no 9, pp. 18-30 (in Russian).
28. Studiјa za regionalen razvoј na Republika Makedoniјa [Study on the regional development of the Republic of Macedonia]. Skopјe, Development Fund Publ., 1992. 78 p. (in Macedonian)
29. Terzich S. Istoricheskaya podopleka sobytij v Kosovo i Metohii [Historical background of events in Kosovo and Metohija]. Obozrevatel’ – Observer, 1998, no 10, pp. 37-41 (in Russian).
30. Fakty o Yugoslavii [Facts about Yugoslavia]. Belgrade, Belgrade publishing house, 1985. 136 p. (in Russian).
31. Chugunov K.V. Balkanskij raj dlya terroristov [Balkan Paradise for terrorists]. Neizvestnaya razvedka – Unknown intelligence, 2004, no 1, pp. 4-6 (in Russian).
32. Shtepan H.L. Makedonskiot јazol [The Macedonian knot]. Skopјe, A-B, 2005. 439 p. (in Macedonian)
33. Agani F. lntervju... [Interview…]. Intervju – Interview. Belgrade, 1996, no 374, pp. 23 (in Serbian).
34. Gall С. How Kosovo Was Turned Into Fertile Ground for ISIS. The New York Times, 21.05.2016.
35. Platform for the Solution of the National Albanian Question, Albanian Academy of Sciences. Tirana, Shkenca Publ., 1998. 49 р.
36. Vlasi A. Nojev reflex srpske vlasti [Noah’s reflex of Serbian power]. Nasha borba – Our struggle. Beograd. 1997. 13-14 December. Pp. 2-3. (In Serbian).