The article examines the political potential of the Ukrainian ethnic lobby in US foreign policy. Proceeding from the fact that ethnic lobbies in the US are able to overcome the institutional system of checks and balances, the authors try to establish the extent and limits of the influence of the Ukrainian lobby. The given lobby is based on a small-numbered Ukrainian diaspora in the US, which was formed as a result of four waves of migration from the territory of modern Ukraine, due to various reasons.
The article analyzes the threats to international security of Russia in 2017. It presents the analysis of the twelve situations, the development of which could have a significant effect on the interests of Russia in the field of international security. There is the most probable scenario for every situation and a list of conditions of its occurrence. The objective of the forecast is reduction of uncertainty of the future and the promotion of reasonable hypotheses about its likely scenarios. The forecast task is to help decision-makers, mentally put yourself in a situation in which realized one of the scenarios for the future and to encourage them to calculate their possible actions.