Sushentsov A.A.

Forecasting Practices in Academic IR: Methodological Mainstream and Unsolved Problems

The article is devoted to the analysis of research tools that are dominant in international relations forecasting. The study is based on quantitative description of 160 prognostic articles from leading journals on international relations for the period from 2006 to 2015. An innovative typology of prognostic studies is proposed and tested. The typology introduces a distinction between «weak prognoses» (probabilistic predictive statements that appear as extrapolations of deductive nomothetical theories) and «strong prognoses» («ideographic» predictions that are formulated as scenarios of possible future developments in specific situations and with specific sets of actors).

The Influence of Ethno-National Lobbies on the Us Foreign Policy: History of the Ukrainian Diaspora

The article examines the political potential of the Ukrainian ethnic lobby in US foreign policy. Proceeding from the fact that ethnic lobbies in the US are able to overcome the institutional system of checks and balances, the authors try to establish the extent and limits of the influence of the Ukrainian lobby. The given lobby is based on a small-numbered Ukrainian diaspora in the US, which was formed as a result of four waves of migration from the territory of modern Ukraine, due to various reasons.

Forecast of International Security Threat of Russia in 2017

The article analyzes the threats to international security of Russia in 2017. It presents the analysis of the twelve situations, the development of which could have a significant effect on the interests of Russia in the field of international security. There is the most probable scenario for every situation and a list of conditions of its occurrence. The objective of the forecast is reduction of uncertainty of the future and the promotion of reasonable hypotheses about its likely scenarios. The forecast task is to help decision-makers, mentally put yourself in a situation in which realized one of the scenarios for the future and to encourage them to calculate their possible actions.