The article is devoted to the analysis of research tools that are dominant in international relations forecasting. The study is based on quantitative description of 160 prognostic articles from leading journals on international relations for the period from 2006 to 2015. An innovative typology of prognostic studies is proposed and tested. The typology introduces a distinction between «weak prognoses» (probabilistic predictive statements that appear as extrapolations of deductive nomothetical theories) and «strong prognoses» («ideographic» predictions that are formulated as scenarios of possible future developments in specific situations and with specific sets of actors).
The article deals with the evolution of constructivist paradigm of international relations. The issue is of utmost importance in terms of the search for theoretical alternatives in the IR thinking. First, we are giving basic introduction of constructivism on the basis of historical and hermeneutical approaches. There is no doubt that the paradigm has faced different theoretical challenges and a lot of critics which has to be addressed. The authors reconsider some constructivist theories and notions in Alexander Wendt’s works and the way Wendt tried to reinforce and reassure the constructivist paradigm.